John. One question.
The world is still computer illiterate. 86% of the world's population do not have a computer.
If we had a stock market boom while feeding 12% of the world's population with technological gadgets, what are the possibilities when a portion of the other 86% come on line?
China went from 12 million to 160 million cellphone users from 1999 to 2002. The Chinese Govt. now states they will achieve 50% coverage by 2010 (500 million users). India stands at but 3% coverage for combined cellphone and computer* use. The Indian Govt. is now projecting increased use of both cells and computers due, in part, to deregulation. India witnessed a 32% increase in cellphone use last year (32% of less than 1% total cellphone users is not a large rise, but the growth remains substantial compared to other countries).
Fleckenstein, among others, jeered three years ago when it was postulated that China could sustain and turn on a cellphone boom. China's Govt.'s own numbers were low compared to what they actually achieved. No analyst predictd that China would go from 12 million to 160 million users in three years. Without China, our 'technological innovation' for cellphone use in the West would have been much worse.
Fleckenstein successfully made an overall call giving the wrong reasons, but achieved a partial victorious outcome. The demise of the Western technologial revolution...or whatever it was. Another reason for an economic decline in the West, according to an economics Pressor at Columbia, is abortion. According to him the West is killing their future at unprecedented numbers (several countries in Europe are experiencing net declines in population growth due to abortion). I haven't heard Fleckenstein talking about the economics of abortion? Is he brave enough to do this?
I am not down on you or Fleckenstein. I am asking questions.
Whatever the reason, what about the other 84%? If China can do it, can not other countries of similar agrarian means?
*India's Govt. regulated the cellphone industry to the tune of receiving 40% in subsidies on every cellphone call made. They lowered this to 15% and cellphone use went from 900,000 (in decline) to 3.2 million in 2.5 years. |
