Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (19659)	10/1/2002 6:57:57 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 36161

jim re: gold shares in a market panic... I can't imagine gold retreating much in a market panic; especially if it is event driven panic - be it a terrorist incident, an unforseen development in the War with Iraq/Oil Supplies, or a Derivatives Meltdown - collapse of JPM (from our lips to the Market-God's ears) etc. Other than the ESF playing a little "smack down" with the POG to try to keep the canary in the coal mine panic siren from going off...I wouldn't expect gold to fall much, or for goldshares to fall in line with the broad market. - would the largecap institutional names like NEM - perhaps "initially" see some liquidation ? - possibly... but, just as likely; they would be the recipient of hedge fund rotation and some institutional hedging as well. At DOW 5000/S&P 500ish when/if seen... I think we will have $400+ Gold and goldshares at least 30-50% higher than today. I think it's 50:50 or better that we see the above and I'd throw out a 33% chance we see $600+ Gold within 30 mos. as history has shown us it's both time for a commodity upcycle and that the Fed and the Market will overswing to the reflation/inflation side... because they have no other choice given the very real deflation pressures that the Bond Market and virtually everyone else is seeing.

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