Jorj- You're right to be concerned about being biased. It is Sooo easy to only see one side when you've already decided; and it is likely that you'd have already decided one way or another in your head, unless you had just taken a long trip to the south pole and had no positions open while you were gone.
I try to make myself search for indications pointing in the opposite direction all the time. But I have to admit, when I find them (and I often do), I can always think of some qualification justifying why they should not in this case be taken all that seriously.
Earlier today is a case in point. In response to BP550's post, I scrambled to double-check charts of stocks that I am following. I immediately saw many bullish signs and bottoming signals, some of which I would have jumped on as buying opportunities if my mindset had been more bullish. Not so surprisingly, in this case they were relatively easy for me to ignore.. keep that in mind if you are ever tempted to pay attention to what I have to say.. ;-)
Anyway- mostly my thinking was that the apparent bottoming in individual stocks will be overridden by the market.
Having said all that, it could be that the reason you are not seeing anything bullish, is that there is nothing to see. Just because you are biased does not mean you're wrong.
One detail regarding the shorter time span comparison
(this chart: stockcharts.com[r,a]dhcaynay[pb50!b200!b30!b20][iub14][J7229246,Y]&listNum=1 ):
The first yellow leg down in the July example is the longest in that sequence, while the 3rd leg down is longest in the September scenario. You may or may not be thinking of Eliot Waves, but in any case, one may argue that the relative length of the yellow lines (or waves) should be similar for a completely convincing comparison. If the relative length does not match, it is possible that they could be drawn some other way, possibly with different implications. This would all be much more useful if I could come up with a different way to draw these lines that would on all counts be more convincing. I could not find one.
The bottoming I have been seeing in individual stock charts is half or more than half played out, but now that they are running, they can run a bit higher. This, mostly from looking at hourly stochastics and support/resistance levels. So, by the time the indexes hit that descending trendline, many stocks should be ready to turn back down. At the same time, this certainly is in accord with the expectation that we will have some limited follow-through tomorrow.
Your long-term COMP chart (this one: stockcharts.com[g,a]whclyyay[d19991101,20021001][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3][j6462363,y]&listNum=1 ) is very interesting in that your comparison to Feb-2001 puts us right on a lower support line which in the comparison period was breached without much hesitation. This could be the test of the comparison's validity: if we do not cross below the descending support line (channel line) fairly soon (this week), it may be invalidated.
Hope all this giberish is of any use..
Thank you for the hard work.
-BRMBLS |
