IMVHO, and its worth what you're paying for it ... but I think we may be looking at an intermediate term bottom here. Not the end of the bad news, just the end of selling on bad news for awhile. I think we had capitulation in July, and this recent move was the re-test. I base this largely on the fact we have yet to see a real rally take any time off the bear clock, so to speak.
I was on board with q's for a summer rally, and remember the supports giving way and cutting losses. Felt like capitulation to me, and others confirm same. Also saved the bail of my final long trade for the exact bottom. Today's buys were the first since then. I think its possible we head back towards pre-summer levels before we fizzle. Something beyond Aug Highs but below May lows on the NAZ. Probable? Who knows, but I have my bet down - for now.
I don't like the timing of this move. I am concerned about redemptions. But then again, if you're still hanging, then you must already be hung ... the dead can't push the sell button. Might be a non-issue.
Locked in on a refinance today. For the first time we will take out a modest additional sum to make some minor improvements - half 'paid' for with the interest rate difference. Up until now the rates have allowed us to effectively remove 5 years off our mortgage with little pain. This time we will make improvements.
Silver has nicely closed its gap from 5-Sep. Will it retest the lows of just prior? It looks tempting to me at those levels, depending on how we go there. But am going back to equities away from COMEX, at least for awhile, as I have not gained ground in the commodity. I took a beating trying to get the perfect entry in SI, just to watch it get away from me. Made back some ground on the return trip from 5+, but closed that one early due to my own schedule. Missed the bottom - didn't chase it over that gap. My guess is what I was trying to do won't work for me right now.
I'm a trader by style, and at the end of the day I'm happy if I have more pieces of paper than when I started with. Its a style that has not worked well for me with the leverage COMEX affords the trader.
Bigger picture are also some doubts about PM's. Will deflation hit PM's? How about simple profit taking, or the need to sell it if its worth anything? Uncertain risks in my mind. I think its very probable that we tread water for awhile right here.
Just random thoughts. Caught most of this rally today, and it was a nice change of pace. Hope the feeling lingers, but am ready for anything.
EZ |
