Here is an interesting post from Yahoo! regarding the Hospital drugs. Somewhat edited (CRs, LFs and things like that inserted) to improve the readability. Posted as a follow-up to today's news.
Ice
Hospital Drugs
by: srsmgja
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 10/01/02 12:52 am
Msg: 87801 of 88755
There's some additional info to ponder tonight. I did some exploring for patent issues on these hospital products.
They are as follows:
1. Azactam - Patent expires mid-late 2005
2. Abelcet - composition patent expires 2014
3. Maxipime (multiple patents) - composition patent expires 2007, formulation patent expires 2008, process patent expires 2014.
Thus I ASSUME that Azactam is potected for at least 3 years and Abelcet and Maxipime are protected for 12 additional years EACH.
Now some sales numbers:
1. Azactam-1999-30M, 2000-35M, 2001-46M, 2002-1st half up 20% over comparable period last year.
2. Abelcet-2000-64M, 2001-77M, 2002-1st half up 20% over comparable period last year.
3. Maxipime-1999-38M, 2000-51M, 2001-86M, 2002-up 30% over comparable period last year. Further evaluation to follow.
Taken together these 3 hospital products have run rates of approx. 250M/year. as follows, Abelcet - 95M/year, Maxipime - 95M/year and Azactam - approx 50-60M/year.
Abelcet and Maxipime are growing at rates between 15-30%/year and both have patent lifes for 12 years. Assume 80% gross margins for both products and ZERO growth. It would take 5 years to reach approx 800M in gross profits on those 2 drugs alone. That still leaves 7 full years of patent protection and almost certain growth in sales (I assumed ZERO).
If one takes the calculation out for 12 full years (again with ZERO growth) it yields approx. 1.8 BILLION in gross profits. So I ask the board, what would another pharma be willing to pay for these 2 products???
Azactam is topping on the cake. Take 60M of sales with 80% gross margins yields approx. 45-50M of gross profits/ yearX 3 guaranteed protected patent years yields 140-150M in total gross profits (again assuming ZERO growth). So what say the board about Azactam worth???
In summary, I think it reasonable that ELN will be able to sell these products for at least 750M. Any thoughts are appreciated. |
