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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (52729)	10/2/2002 9:19:35 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) of 54805

ARMHY: Value investor alert! Any thoughts on what's happening here? Just catching up with the big cyclical downturn (hence a buying opportunity), or losing competitive advantage (sell or avoid)? biz.yahoo.com Notes: 2nd qt US rev 68m, about 63 GP. Expense structures looks reasonable with 19 SG&A, 20.5 R&D. Op. Income was US$25m. Even with the expected drop to 52m rev this quarter, they should be solidly profitable, not a bleeder. Balance sheet looks healthy with US196m net working capital. They were running 63m receivables at 2nd qt (83 days), and that looks a little suspect, some "dead man walking" customer write offs? 336m ADR shares out @ 2.00= 672 MC- 196 nwc (adjust down some for rec?)= 476 EV. EV of 4.8X first half 2002 operating income (more normalized?). Leverage looks excellent in a cyclical recovery, and if there's long term growth (competitive position intact?)to boot, big bonus. RTW June 02 report: rtwreport.com

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