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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 75.19

-0.1%

Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: t2 who wrote (61570)	10/2/2002 3:14:34 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (3) of 77400

It's your call of course, but I think Cisco is just going through a process of getting revalued to something more commensurate with it's discounted free cash flows per share. On this thread, using optimistic assumptions, we've valued the company at somewhere between $5-8 per share. So if you purchase above that, then you are taking a risk. Cisco has a knack for surprising everyone, so nothing is out of the question, but there's your fair warning. My concern is that this is a typically weak quarter for Cisco and it's been a horendous quarter for everyone this year. Even the manufacturing purchasing index is down and the new orders index is below 50, which means it's shrinking. Bad news. A Cisco miss is a 50% chance right now, IMHO. Those aren't great odds. If they miss, then $8 is easy. If they hit their targets then you might see $1-2 to the upside in the short term. Either way, I think Nov-March are usually good months, so you'll be able to get your money back even if you have to hold it for a longer term trade. Good luck!

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