Galapagos Islands Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands

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To: AugustWest who wrote (4334)	10/2/2002 10:41:56 PM
From: PuddleGlum	Read Replies (3) of 57110

Back on the CRB thing... oil, gas, and precious metals contribute significantly to it, and I'm not quite so optimistic about the short term (1-2 months) outlook for gold as most people on this board. In fact, I briefly (only briefly) thought about shorting some gold stocks about two weeks ago. And I can't understand how even the threat of war with Iraq has the price of oil pegged soooooo high right now. I remember how oil prices behaved when the Asian Contagion was ragin', and it wasn't fun to have energy stocks in your portfolio then (I did). Energy prices signaled the economic collapse well in advance back then. IF there is no war with Iraq, and IF the economy is really as bad as it looks, then oil prices should collapse. The strength of oil prices is perhaps the key reason why I am not jumping on the short selling bandwagon as heavily as most of you. And speaking of short selling, my RTH puts would have paid off handsomely had I kept them. And my SCIO puts would be near worthless if I hadn't sold them for a modest loss (canceled out my RTH gains).

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