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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 309.40+1.0%Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: orkrious who wrote (5798)10/3/2002 12:31:21 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) of 95530
 
From Briefing.com: New 52-Week Lows - Investors feeling the pain across a number of sectors today as their holdings slip to new 52-week lows. Groups with multiple representatives on the New Low List include Banking/Financial Services: MWD -5.6%, GBBK -10.5%, BK -10%, ZION -5.4%, TD -2.4%, AFC -14%; Semi/Semi Equip: AMD -28%, CY -13%, FCS -4.5%, MCRL -32%, LSI -6%; and Software: VRTS -16%, BOBJ -7.4%, SNPS -4.6%, NTIQ -3.7%, NET -3%.

10:04AM ISM, Orders slightly better than expected : The ISM services index rose to 53.9% in Sep from 50.9% in August - this was better than the 51.4% consensus, though this release has a short track record and the implications of this small increase are difficult to determine. Factory Orders were a bit better than expected as well, remaining unchanged in August vs a consensus of -0.3%, though this was not a significant upside surprise for this report. The market has moved on the ISM services number - there has been a tendency to overreact to this report in both directions in recent months.

10:02AM ISM Services 53.9% vs 51.4% consensus; Factory Orders flat vs -0.3% consensus :

9:55AM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : The semi sector is one of the worst performers (SOX -3.8%) this morning with AMD (-22.1%) pacing the way in the wake of the warning. Sizeable retreat also seen in BRCM -7%, LSCC -7.3%, LSI -4.3%, TER -3.7%, NVLS -3.9%, MXIM -4% and KLAC -3.5%. The index is slipping back toward support in the 239/238 area with a secondary floor near 234. Little thereafter in front of the Sep low at 231.59. Resistances are at 244 and 248.

8:57AM Cisco Systems upgraded at CEUT (CSCO) 10.05: -- Update -- CE Unterberg Towbin upgrades to BUY from Mkt Perform due to valuation and dissipating concerns of a sharp revenue shortfall for the current qtr; moreover, in contrast to Soundview's checks (8:37), firm says their analysis and checks indicate that firm's rev est of $4.805 bln and consensus EPS est of $0.13 remain achievable; price target is $13.

8:37AM Broadcom cut to Underperform from In-line at Solly; target $10 (BRCM) 11.55:

8:31AM DuPont guides above consensus; upside driven by lower taxes (DD) 37.31: Dow component raises Q3 outlook to a range of $0.35-$0.37 (excluding items), exceeding co's earlier est of approx. $0.24 (Multex consensus $0.29). The majority of the upside reflects expectation that Q3 provision for income taxes will be lower than previously anticipated.

8:31AM Jobless Claims higher than expected : Claims rose 5K to 417K in the Sep 28 week, a bit above the 410K consensus. Continuing claims rose 29K in the prior week, indicating that new hiring remains weak. The September claims trend suggests a very definite risk that tomorrow's payrolls number shows a decline, which would be consistent with the modest pace of recovery seen this year.

8:30AM Jobless Claims +5K to 417K vs 410K consensus

8:04AM Intel estimates may have to come down - Lehman (INTC) 14.30: Following last night's AMD warning, Dan Niles at Lehman expects INTC consensus ests for 2002-03 to come down by $0.02-$0.04 and $0.05-$0.08, respectively (consensus for 2002 is $0.53 and 2003 is $0.77); believes that although Sept was "not great," INTC should come within the lower half of their $6.3-$6.7 bln rev guidance, EPS should be closer to firm's $0.12 than the consensus of $0.13, and the Q4 consensus rev growth est of 7% will come down to firm's 5% est.

8:04AM Veritas Software CFO resigns after misstating credentials (VRTS) 14.50: The company said that it had recently become aware that Lonchar had misstated his educational credentials, including incorrectly claiming to have received an MBA from Stanford University. "While Ken's misstatement about his academic credentials is unfortunate, it has no bearing on the accuracy of our financial results or the quality of our financial procedures and controls," stated CEO Gary Bloom. The company also reaffirmed Q3 outlook for the second time in a little over a week.

7:45AM Motorola upgraded at JP Morgan (MOT) 10.15: JP Morgan upgrades to OVERWEIGHT from Neutral, saying semis (heavily weighted toward communications vs. the Intel PC semi-cycle) should continue to lead sector operating improvements and reach operating breakeven; also, unconfirmed speculation of MOT/SI swap appears to be heating up and may likely be a precursor to a deal.

7:37AM Taiwan LCD monitor producers expect moderate growth in October - Digitimes : Digitimes.com reports that Taiwan LCD monitor producers said they have received only limited orders, as major PC co's and distributors have been conservative in placing orders as falling TFT LCD prices have not stabilized and uncertainty remains over Q4 economic conditions; Taiwanese LCD monitor producers generally expect October shipments to increase only a moderate 10-20% from Sept, far below the traditional peak season pick-up. (Watch GNSS and PXLW for possible reaction.)

7:35AM S&P futures vs fair value: +1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. : Both S&P and Nasdaq futures managing to hold near the flatline despite major warnings out of the banking sector (Bank of NY -14%) and in the Semi space (AMD -15%). Contributing to resilience in futures is further dissemination of reports yesterday that late mkt slide was exacerbated by the mother of all clerical errors. FT reports that Bear Stearns placed an order to sell $4 bln of S&P 500 index futures instead of the intended $4 mln sell. According to the NYSE, $622 mln of the transaction was executed before the order was cancelled out.

finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+BK+CY+DD+FCS+GNSS+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MCRL+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+PXLW+TER+TXN+VRTS+XLNX+^VIX+^IXIC&d=t

LLTC has incredible profit margins on their sales. The stock has thereby been afforded a much higher P/S ratio.

Cary will tell you this too I'm sure.

RtS
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