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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: geode00 who wrote (16798)10/3/2002 4:56:22 PM
From: Tim Bagwell  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
It's another fine mess Bob's followers have fallen into.

I think Bob's Jan 2000 call can be summed up in one indicator. The FED. All of his proprietary recipes for market models couldn't show him the bear, much less severity or duration.

And he might have been right on the money if the bear turned out to be a small one. But the biggest bull market of all time followed by the longest bear of all time barely made his model flinch.

Bob's uncertainty is reflected in his allocation shift. 60/40 is a lot closer to 50/50 than it is to 100/0 (with 50/50 being total confusion). So Bob's model barely tilted towards bearishness...and this was 30 months ago. That spells serious doubt.
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