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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: marginmike who wrote (195294)10/4/2002 12:43:54 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
<<<I think 60 is minimum for buying >>>

Bernie Schaeffer thinks we'll see VIX 100:


Early on I stated that there is a rare case in which climactic investor fear would in fact define the bottom in a protracted bear market. What would this look like?

Forget "high" VIX numbers like 56 and 57. At a climactic bear market bottom, the VIX will come in north of 100, as it did in October 1987. I'm glad you asked – the VIX peak in October 1987 was 172.79.
The CBOE equity put/call ratio 21-day moving average will post readings in excess of 1.00. The highest such readings since 1990 have been in the 0.75+ area.
There will have been many consecutive months of equity mutual fund redemptions, climaxing in an off-the-charts single-month figure.

In other words, if the bear-market bottom is, in fact, climactic, we will not have a mere "extreme" of bearish sentiment - we will have an EXTREME!!! of bearish sentiment.

And where will the Dow be when this occurs? In my opinion, at 6000 or south thereof.


schaeffersresearch.com
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