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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: yard_man who wrote (195327)10/4/2002 1:24:16 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (4) of 436258
 
tip -- isn't AA's problem all the new capacity that is coming on line in China? they used to be a net importer, and now they are a HUGE net exporter.

from what i understand worldwide capacity has to come down by at least 20% to even have any hope of getting supply/demand in balance. and capacity ain't gonna come off line in low-cost China; it will dis-proportionately come off line here in the US, would be my guess.

AA and Alcan are potential zeroes. there is a company called Century Aluminum (CENX) -- the market cap is only $150mm but they have a lot of debt and I think they're done for.

Cheers
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