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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam

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To: Boplicity who wrote (9275)	10/4/2002 7:09:01 PM
From: Ex-INTCfan	Read Replies (2) of 13815

I'm not certain it will be a positive moment that moves the markets upward. More likely, a downdraft that puts a wide selection of stock to such low prices that people say "I KNOW this will be worth more in two years." We need to get at least as undervalued as we were overvalued for this to happen. I really believe when it does, the initial climb will be fast due to the shorts; but it won't be straight up after that. What is this level? I dunno. We are getting closer. I'm seeing some stocks below book value. If tech stock approach book value, we are there for sure. I can say that I don't see business getting worse in my business. We are trying harder than ever to bring in new accounts; we still are bringing them in, but at a reduced rate from two years ago. If we had expended the same effort back then, we would have doubled or tripled sales. I'm feeling a bit of a pickup lately; there is a level of interest there. But very few clients now are tech clients -- maybe 5% compared to 50% a couple of years back, but we've seen some biting from tech in the last few weeks. I can't imagine any positive news that would move the market. I think it will be the recognition that people have thrown in the towel. We can't rely on historical norms in this case, since we are coming off one of the biggest bubbles in history. There is a case to be made that one of the biggest declines in history will follow it, and I believe this case already has been made. The magnitude remains unknown. Sometimes I think that commercial with the bull and the bear where the bear says "DOW 5000, Nasdaq 800" has stuck in people's heads. It looks less silly every day. I think Naz has to crack 1000. None of the houses are trying to provide support -- they let CSCO go below 10. I picked some up at 10 and change (not much, just a couple of thousand shares), and I'm underwater on it already. I'm not touching anything else in the near term unless things really crack. I mean, would you buy CSCO at 3? At 6? I would. Ex-I

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