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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Math Junkie who wrote (16824)10/5/2002 2:41:41 PM
From: geode00  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
Well, since he doesn't explain himself in any kind of detail, I can only go from the snippets that I have heard and read. During the bull he stayed correctly fully invested for the most part. His model did not see the full extent of the 1998 mid-bubble correction and he became bullish too early then.

Then in 2000, he became correctly cautious and then even more cautious. He then became quite a bit more short-term bullish and stayed that way for 6 months into the first quarter of 2001. After that, he became essentially neutral neither bear or bull during one of the longest and deepest bear markets in history.

His model was dead wrong, wavered and then became correctly bullish during the big bull. His model hiccuped in 1998. His model wavered, became dead wrong and has remained static since late 2000 until this day. At some point he claimed to be able to call tops to within 3-5% I believe and bottoms with somewhat less accuracy.

I find that idea to be patently absurd given what he has advised over the last decade plus. What happened to the precision in his longterm model that he once claimed? Is it only precise from time to time or only during bulls? Does his longterm model have the same problem with bear markets as (apparently) all models do?

Why is finding the bottom of a bear so difficult if finding the top of the bull was so clear (although it really wasn't) for Bob?

Given where Bob decided to place the QQQ trade on hold, I suspect that his longterm model has so far missed the bottom of this bear (in the overall market) by close to 30%.
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