You might be squeezed quite a bit in the coming weeks! Hope you're not on margin! Martin Zweig(did I get the spelling right?) said last
Friday on Wall Street Week that he expects to see 9000 before 7000.
You should wait until the momentum subsides before jumping in. Greenspan certainly won't spook the markets, since the DOW is almost 2000 points north of what it was when he yapped about "Irrational Exuberance!" Neither will Japan, since just about all of the performing assets in their banking system now are US T-Bills! Dollar is on a bull run with no end, as Japan desperately tries to jumpstart
its failing economy. Expect short-covering and foreign buying to keep
the party goin' until everyone(me included) goes back to school!
Does anyone have a target for this stock? I say $175 before it turns into Microsoft Jr.(i.e. down $15 in 72 hours on profit taking)
BUT on the long term(98 and after) the PC industry will pretty much become a commodity one, like DRAM chips(see Micron Technology Aug.1995-Aug.1997), with one small exception: there's no Taiwanese or South Korean firm plunging $10 billion/ year into Assembly factories,
which was the case in the memory chip market. Nonetheless, PC sales will slow, with accompanying effects to the stock price (Compaq was at 12 times earnings only 2 years ago!) My target is $130, or -15%, by 2000. I don't know much about Dell, but a quick glance at its 10Q forms scared the hell out of me. That is, until I looked at Microsoft and Gillette. Anyone here still remember the nifty-fifty in 1972? Mcdonald's at a p/e of 80? IBM at $170? And the 80%+ correction in the following 2 years? Heck, I wasn't even born then! Guess we really had a long bull market, eh? It's true that one can't drive by watching the rearview mirror all the time, but nothing defies gravity! This market certainly won't, but the question is: when will it fall on its rear?
All comments are welcome.
Regards,
Ming.
P.S. Anyone know what the latest book-bill ratio was? |
