Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 302.84

+2.0%

Dec 2 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (5844)	10/5/2002 5:42:37 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95515

It's obvious to me that we are low and probably going even lower. All those contrary indicators suggest we are nearing a bottom from which we can rally. But first the market is going lower simply because we have not seen enough volume corresponding to the selling in the last few months. In July we almost had enough volume selling. All those indicators lined up enough to convince me we had a bottom but it was the wrong time of year for a true bottom. Now we are here in October, the perfect month for past bottoms, so I ask you why not the true bear market bottom now? Well so far we can't even get the volume over 2 billion shares a day on the NASDAQ. We have not seen any 90% downside days for the NASDAQ. We have not yet seen the VIX over 50. We have not yet seen the level of bearishness reach the heights it did in September or July. Other concerns of mine are the fact that we are still seeing fall out from numerous companies guilty of fraudulent reporting. We are still seeing a lot of lowered guidance with the potential for a double dip recession very likely. We still have an S&P 500 with both P/E ratios and dividend ratios way above the norm at past bear market bottoms. We still have not seen technology companies forced to lower their earnings by expensing options. When Congress forces the expensing of options it will be a move which could lower earnings as much as 70% for many a high tech company. All of this is hanging over the market and the selling taking place so far while creating volatility has not created panic. We need that panic to find the bottom. What will do it? Maybe the invasion of Iraq. When that happens we probably will see the end of the bear market if all goes well but not before we hit even lower lows than any of us want to admit we may yet see. In the meantime we could easily find another short term bottom this month at the very least. RtS

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