Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 260.77

+0.2%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (66403)	10/5/2002 6:41:15 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (1) of 70976

I agree with everything in your message, except for the phrase "should be buying now". My perception is that the trends you list are far from played out. In particular, net public withdrawals from mutual funds have so far been less than 2.5% of total assets. Based on the 1974 experience, the % of assets withdrawn should be much higher before the bear is done. And 1974 is likely an optimistic comparison, given the size of the market distortion that occurred in 1995-2000. Maybe at sp500 = 500 or so, I will consider "now" to have arrived. I consider a realistic economic projection for the next 3 years to be "anaemic recovery at best". On that basis, the 500 mark on SP500 would at least restore P/E, P/S, P/tangibleBook, P/dividend, P/GDP ratios etc. to somewhere within their historic ranges, rather than out in the twilight zone. contraryinvestor.com At least then it will be worth asking whether the market is over or under valued. Right now I don't think it's even debatable. All just IMO of course. Oh and that Richard Russell dude seems to agree. Message 18075521 "LET ME PUT IT THIS WAY. THIS IS THE WORST BEAR MARKET SINCE 1929-32. AND THESE IGNORANT ANALYSTS AND THESE MIS-GUIDED STRATEGISTS ARE TELLING US THAT WE'RE IN A RECOVERY, THAT WE'RE IN THE PROCESS OF AVOIDING A "DOUBLE-DIP" RECESSION. "BELIEVE ME, WE'RE GOING INTO THE DAMNEDEST RECESSSION-DEPRESSION THIS GENERATION HAS EVER SEEN. A YEAR FROM NOW YOU WILL NOT RECOGNIZE THIS ECONOMY".

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