Hi Scott,
Thanks for that Intelligencer article....shows that we're not alone here in San Diego..still lots of refi action...me?...my second is paid off in December...sure would like to buy a new car...wife wants side airbags...ain't gonna' do it...wouldn't be prudent...<gg>
Scott, last night after I posted my comment about interest rates increases affecting the housing bubble. I read Richard Russell's 10/4 commentary as reposted from Orkrious by JWRPhD.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=18076081
I recommend the entire commentary, but this extract shows that I missed the boat...I named the "usual suspects"...
"One of the big economic questions is housing, and what will happen to the "housing bubble." I'm getting a lot of e-mails from subscribers
across the nation, and almost all of them talk about hard times hitting their areas. My friend Gary Shilling has been "right on" regarding
deflation and this market. Want to know how the housing bubble ends? Gary talks about it in this week's Forbes magazine. Listen to
what he's saying --
" What will burst the bubble? Don't look for the usual suspects -- interest rate hikes or overbuilding. Look instead for a second
recessionary dip brought on by wealth losses and pink slips, pressuring consumers to retrench. When the Ralphs (common people) of
the nation are laid off, they won't be able to make their mortgage payments on the homes they've bought, or to buy a house to being
with. Then the bad news ripples through the move-up market.
" As housing demand dries up, prices will fall and the whole mechanism will work in reverse. Those with big leverage will see their equity
wiped out, forcing them to sell, pushing prices still lower. Up to now, house appreciation has been off-setting stock losses for many
people. That helpful phenomenon will be history.
" House-price drops typically lag the economy. In the early 1990s, Los Angeles residential real estate didn't peak until two years after
overall business topped out, and then single-family house prices fell for six straight years.. . . Residential prices take a while to react
largely because the market prices of people's houses are not available daily to force them to admit that their property had declined in
value........."
Times are a' changin' and not for the better, I fear...hope all is well with you & yours, Scott...........jj |
