02 tax loss season;Mother of all buying opportunites? Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : 02 tax loss season;Mother of all buying opportunites?

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To: marcos who wrote (63)	10/6/2002 12:05:36 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 212

Your advice to use some balance here is proper not just for me (a potential wild man) but especially for others. And the truth is neither of us is going to call a market like this right (maybe close?).I don't want to beat the mutha theme too loudly, because clearly there's a real problem out there. Personally I think the "problem" is a big D Depression (the consumer is next). Then again Red Herring type stocks selling at or barely above quick assets and plant kind of discounts even more than a depression. I think it's important to be discussing these stocks because nobody else really is (and that's what happens during muthas). The NASDAQ chart that was posted here shows we are already "back to the future" and in the 1932 phase as far as the innovation stock market is concerned. The duration and depth of late 1929-early 32 to early 2000-late 02 is similar. I think the only work remaining in the NASDAQ is a big air pocket in MSFT (11.7% of the index), and a few more pockets in stocks that are still a bit levitated like DELL (3.2% of index) and QCOM (1.1%). I think CSCO may be getting there price wise but it will be real interesting to see how they survived this quarter. When they likely come up short everybody will downgrade that stock. That could be the final NASDAQ bottom and the mutha in CSCO? I also see some significant air pockets in the S&P (MSFT again, and mostly the so called defensive consumer stocks like PG, KO, WMT). But, I really feel the work in the universe of "surviving" innovators we've been discussing is nearly done, so it's important to start making some distinctions on what's still vulnerable (the "life boat" stocks people have crowded on to), and the quality orphans that might normalize some.

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