P&S and STO Death Blow's Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's

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To: Alan Bell who wrote (9553)	10/6/2002 2:42:45 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (2) of 30712

alan...theres a few different ways it could happen.... look at july....the dump went from 1426 to 1192 in 5-days....that could happen again... or.... the high could be set options wednesday the 16th....bleed down to just say 1130 by the 22nd....that would look like a low....but it still would be a high then a bleed of only 130 pts till the end of october...that would be more a bleed type dump.... see....lots of folks think when these cycle guys say a high or a low....they think the high has to be the absolute top of a trend or a low has to be an absolute bottom.... but what might look like a low can still be a high....so if this zone we are in is from 1000 to 1239....folks think 1130 must be a low....but it doesn't have to be...that could be the high.... so if the 22nd rolls around....and the lowest low to date in this zone was say the 1135 bottom on friday....if we are are at 1150...the cycle guys would naturally think we are near the low....because they don't see 1000 in this zone...but it would a high.... this stuff is hard to explain.....so i'll give a recent example... back in june....the cycle guys all had the end of june as a low.....and they screamed summer rally was coming and runs of 1600-1800 by august..... ok... i went against them and said end of june would be a high....and july would not rally but dump into the retrace low under 1200.....this thread was almost dead when i said that....because i went against the great cycle gods.... they were all fooled by what they thought was a successful retest of the september lows..... but.....there were pierces of those lows....and it all screamed of just another sucker run before lower lows.... you can't pierce these major supports or they are not support anymore....thats why "pierce" plays are indeed killer signals you can't ignore.....now we are again piercing all the major supports as we drop....so that alone tells you if we are not at 1000 by oct 22nd....or have hit 1000 before that....whatever its at around the 22nd...be it 1100 or 1150 or 1230......its likely going to be a high...not a low.... confusing...you bet....thats why so many of these cycle guys have lows that turn out to be highs and highs that turn out to be lows...... the best thing you can do is see what the numbers are at the time of the turn date and don't commit till you see the trend that comes off that date.....

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