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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)
LU 2.500-0.8%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: TCGNJ who wrote (20904)10/7/2002 12:17:11 PM
From: David Hansen  Read Replies (2) of 21876
 
I'm predicting an overall market decline the day we hit Iraq and probably again when Hussein sets his oil wells on fire and shoots chemical weapons into Israel and against US forces... It will be a buying oppty. I don't doubt that we will overwhelm the Iraqi forces but there will be casualties and there will be an emotional response from Wall St. I also predict the same sort of euphoria that overtook the markets when it was clear that Desert Storm was an incredible success. I don't know time frames but it seems to me that the action will start in about a month or so... This will be a longer ground war than 100 hours. Probably more like a 100 days. Rebuilding will be 100 months... But what are you gonna do? Wait until the Jackass of Baghdad lives up to his reputation? I'd say defend ourselves. This has less to do with oil than the invasion of Kuwait did... I'm all for reducing our dependence on foreign oil - let's drill in the Arctic, let's develop hydrogen autos and mandate them... but if we were buying 50% less foreign oil today we would still be planning on taking out Hussein. It's more about self defense. The guy is a nut and he has all the resources he needs to hurt us badly if we wait...

It would sure help if some of LU's competition would start to go away. As an LU shareholder, I would like to see NT broken up and desolved and many of the European vendors like Alcatel, Nokia, Ericcson, etc. to retrench to Europe and loose market share in the US... Right now it is nothing more than fantasy.... This has got to happen if LU will survive. More likely, in the next few weeks we will hear about a new "Phase 3" restructure plan. More optical will bite the dust, Core ATM switching may vamoose... 8-10,000 jobs gone... break even at the end of 2003... stock stays flat.
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