Jabil Circuit (JBL) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL)

JBL 218.17

+4.3%

Nov 5 3:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Asymmetric who wrote (6114)	10/7/2002 2:56:45 PM
From: Asymmetric	Read Replies (1) of 6317

"Current Crash is a Story Untold" See no evil Tero Kuittinen/Street.Com -10/07/02 07:55 AM EDT In a way, the current crash is a story untold. The US media has by and large tucked itself into a catatonic fetal curl. Barron's keeps doing giddy "buy tech stocks" cover articles; WSJ is in permanent awe of just how close the rebound is; Forbes is stuck in its TASS-redux "this country has never been stronger" shtick; Businessweek runs a series of heart-warming "no double dip!" pieces. The rest of the media is following meekly the White House playbook and opting for 24/7 Iraq coverage. In the meanwhile, perhaps the biggest business story for decades is unfolding as the global financial system slowly spins out of control. The last time I visited NYC I saw Katie Couric doing that morning show, so it's clear to me that some of the pathological chirpiness of the US media is a national quirk that runs through all media… but still, it has never afflicted the serious business reporting to this extent. Of course the new lows feel less shocking than the July depths, because the descent has been slow and hesitant. But that's also the most hair-rising aspect of this latest tumble -- it's happening in an unemotional grind rather than panic-fueled swoop. The almost complete absence of worst-case scenarios in the business press means that most investors have probably never stopped to think about just how genuinely atrocious things can get here. Nearly all US mainstream coverage about the future of the markets is choked with evasive maneuvers such as "presuming that earnings recover as forecast" and "assuming that companies start investing this winter". That's the crux of the matter, of course -- the recent tumble in 3Q EPS expectations has been nothing short of stunning. The 3Q EPS growth estimate has now fallen from 16% to 5.9% and keeps heading lower even as the 4Q expectations is stuck to 20%. As we finally start getting first meaningful 4Q guidance this week, that gap is going to be firmly in the spotlight -- no matter how many observers try to get away with the "war jitters" dismissal. Surprisingly good German manufacturing order numbers mean that we're once again floating towards a hopeful NY open despite the Nikkei shocker. The Mitsubishi retail index is now going to be a focus of intense scrutiny after last week's first solid year-on-year decline.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next