Zeev,
<<The way I see the next major secular bull market right now, is through the accelerated increase in the middle class in the developing world, not necessarily because of a new killer application or a completely new technology.>>
I would like to believe this, but.... The "developing world" doesn't have a unified labor force. A few countries have them (for example, Korea can at times mount a mean general strike, as can a few South American countries), but governments largely back management, and defuses many gains by labor. Any time a third world country gets advances in wages and conditions, jobs move on to cheaper pastures. In Mexico right now, for example, both labor and management are paralyzed with fear about China taking their jobs--they just can't compete with Chinese wages and labor. Nor for that matter can almost anyone else. Chinese labor can trump Mexican labor even for products destined to go the US on many goods. So at least I've been told.
Under these conditions, I just don't see how a middle will develop in the third world. It's the other side of our great "bargains"--our $7-10 shirts, electronic goods, shoes, etc. carry an invisible price tag.
Sam |
