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To: mish5000 who wrote (4277)	10/7/2002 7:33:36 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) of 10157

Mish, just a couple of quick considerations… I also don’t think that we are ready for a multi-year positive bias. I perceive the bullishness still as very pervasive. Last I read, the major brokerage strategists were still allocating close to 70% to equities – about the record high. Near significant bottoms the “professionals” tend to be fairly bearish. The foreign money tends to be stupid money. Foreigners tend to crowd in near the top of a major bull market, and they will tend to abandon it near a bottom. The fact that they are disinvesting in the US may actually serve as a longish-term bullish argument. Someone mentioned earlier about the MSFT litigation… Bob Prechter has been writing for years how governments tend to attack the country's most successful corporations near the top of a multi-year Bull market, and then tend to settle the litigation near a bottom. If I recall correctly, the MSFT litigation started in the spring of 1999, just around the time when the NYSE advance / decline line topped out, and not long before the final leg of the great bull had started. The timing of the final resolution of the lawsuit may turn out to be a significant long-term indicator.

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