Cary, I don't think that I introduced Moore law as the "Achiles heel", maybe I said that Moore laws will extend till it meets quantum physics limitations (let say something like 10 lattice parameters or about 1000 atoms, or about 30/40 nanometers), and the potential demise of Moore 's law sometime in the future is the Achiles heel of the semi complex. By the way, I do not expect Moore laws to die smoothly, from geometric to flat, it will probably undergo a transition to a more linear progress.
As for the driving force behind the "middle classation" of the developing world, I think that open world wide communication (sure, a benefit of technology, but not necessarily of Moore law per se), and the "world economy", which are political rather then technical developments, IMHO, are more responsible for these transitions. The world GDP is still going to follow a more linear progression than the geometric progression you are suggesting, at east, it has for the last 40 years or so, while Moore law was king.
At the turn of the last century, 50% of all American were involved in growing food for themselves and the rest of the country, and they lived for the most part, a wretched life with an average life span, of under 50 years. At the turn of the century, only 2% to may be 3% are involved in agricultural activities, and they supply food not just for all the rest of us, but for a goodly part of the rest of the world. Sure technology and automation, as well as consolidation were involved, but I am not familiar with any geometric phenomenon responsible for that massive transition. The constant reduction in the cost of electronic components, had only a marginal impact on that sector. The world is undergoing a major transition from "Brawn power" to "Brain Power", and the yield on the latter is simply much bigger than on the former.
Zeev |
