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Gold/Mining/Energy : A to Z Junior Mining Research Site

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To: 4figureau who started this subject10/8/2002 8:47:49 AM
From: 4figureau  Read Replies (1) of 5423
 
UBS Warburg:

President George Bush’s comments on Iraq contained no new information but the slant of his comments have been interpreted by financial markets as pointing to a less urgent threat of war. This, and continued stockmarket weakness is providing the short term direction to the gold market at the moment in otherwise featureless trading.

Gold: News: The final tally for this years Indian Monsoon was released on Friday. Rainfall during this year's south-west Indian monsoon, which runs from June to September, was 19 percent below normal resulting in drought-like conditions in 29 percent of the country, according to Indian officials. A good monsoon is crucial to India's economic health as the farm sector accounts for a quarter
of gross domestic product and employs about 70 percent of the country's more than one billion people. India's winter food grains output in 2002 is therefore likely to fall by 18 percent from the previous year to 91 million tonnes, while oilseed production is seen dropping 11.3 percent to 11.7 million tonnes.

Trading: In New York, gold had one of its quietest US sessions for months as the metal traded in an eighty-five cent range, tracking moves in the equity market. In Asia and early London trading gold was similarly quiet.

View: Gold will continue to trade between $318 and $328 depending on changes in this speculative interest in gold: a change in the recent drivers to gold will be required to break gold out of this range.

1m 3m 6m 1y 3y 5y 10y
USD/XAU Impl Opt Vol (Mids) 16.5 16.25 16.1 15.3 13.3 12.85 12.2
Gold Fwd Rates 1.74 1.59 1.41 1.24

Silver: Trading: Silver traded quietly in a 2½ cent range for almost all of the session until some late commission house selling just before the close saw the metal end on the low of the day.

View: Silver-trading Comex speculators cut their net long position by 25 million ounces in the week to 1st October and this may be the reason for some of the weakness in the silver price. Although our traders continue to believe that silver can weaken further we believe that the downside will be limited and that a rally up to the $4.65 level is likely in the next week or two.

thebulliondesk.com
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