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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 314.52-0.6%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST
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To: willcousa who wrote (5900)10/8/2002 9:00:37 AM
From: michael97123  Read Replies (2) of 95567
 
WC,
Think Bush presented the case well last night. I have come to believe that a coalition of sorts is better than none and if take another inspection fiasco to do it, so be it. At that point the French, and Russians will be hard pressed not to go along. And perhaps over the next several months there will be some smart Iraqis who realize where their fearless leader is taking them. So the war in February looms but perhaps there can be a peaceful way out without saddam and without war.
Regarding the markets, the Bush speech did not have the jingoist tone of earlier ones. This should calm the markets somewhat. You are right. If there is war, the market will go up once the uncertainty is gone. But if there is peace, the market will go up more.
Think of what a result like the following would mean. Saddam overthrown in some manner. Another general takes over who is eager to rid his country of WMD. UN finances removal. Sanctions immediately lifted. Iraq, starving for cash and with no great love of Saudis(&Opec) opens up the oil spigots. Price of oil falls to below $15 which is tantamount to a huge tax cut for US, Europe and Japan. Markets surge all over world. This is the sleeper plan and if Bush really is Machievellian as some here claim, the overthrow of Saddam should occur a week or two before the election. Wouldnt that be cool? Just a dream i have. Mike
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