Own_stock, thanks for an interesting post!
"The concept of a few big players is a knee jerk reaction by all financial analysts. It is true (1or2) in most industries, so they assume it will happen in optics too"
so why shouldn't it be true for optics?
Optical stuff requires big capital investment, and it will require more as more components get integrated on a single slab of silicon (or whatever). For the electrical version, chips are so complex & expensive now even the likes of Intel designs them with partners (such as HP).
And it's not just capital needs that favor consolidation -- it's standards too -- the fewer, the better, and often that means few companies proposing standards.
Seems like consolidation makes at least as much sense here as it does in other consolidated industries.
"Now the speculation is BKHM is going to buy NT optics components group... that would take earnings to about negative $1.80/share, and ultimate bankruptcy for BKHM.
Stupidity reigns supreme".
I wonder. Don't you think optics will inevitably be important, even vital, to computers as well as phones? And that phone use will restart in years, not decades?
The resurgence may not happen soon enough for BKHM, but ya gotta admit the company has something between irrational optimism and guts. It takes both to start any hi-tech company. Sooner or later (if only un-seeable decades from now) all data processing is likely to be driven optically both as to wires, chips and storage media --- something fantasized since at least the days of the movie 2001 (Hal's optical memory).
Buying BKHM may not be smart investing, but it's a great way to feel part of that fantasized future.
- Charles |
