Is oil fuelling America's oust-Saddam drive?
Abu Dhabi |By Nadim Kawach | 08-10-2002
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An intensifying U.S. campaign against Iraq following the deadly September attacks on New York and Washington last year is targeting both its oil and weapons and the pressure is set to gain momentum until Washington achieves its goals and Baghdad gives in.
Analysts surveyed about the real targets of the U.S. threats to strike Iraq differed about the exact motive but found that oil, weapons and Iraq's defiance against Washington are common factors to such a campaign, which has so far met with limited global support.
One expert said the U.S. simply wants to humiliate Iraq and control its vast oil resources, second only to Saudi Arabia's crude wealth. Another saw Iraq's defiant rhetoric against Washington as the main factor in the mounting tension in the region.
But a third expert went further by believing the United States is planning a large-scale offensive against Iraq with the aim of taking control of its oil and dispensing with crude supplies from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to press them on reforms.
Henry Azzam, a well-know Arab economist, said U.S. President George Bush wanted to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussain and bring a pro-American regime that allows U.S. oil firms back into Iraq.
"By this, Iraq will become a more secure oil supply source for the Americans...if this scenario is accomplished, Iraq will have the capability to increase its oil output capacity to six million barrels per day in five years... such an increase will create a large surplus in the global market and will consequently weaken Opec's ability to control prices," said Azzam, chief executive of the Amman-based Jordan Invest Bank.
"Only then, Washington will feel that it is in a position to put pressure on Gulf Arab states to carry out the required political and economic reforms."
Another Arab analyst agreed the U.S. is eyeing Iraqi oil but countered the view that it is seeking to dispose with other Gulf oil supply sources.
Louis Hubeika, a Beirut-based economist and former World Bank official, said oil is a main factor in the present U.S. campaign against Iraq but added that the more important factor is Baghdad's defiance and its procrastinations over the issue of the UN arms inspectors.
"Iraqi oil is a main factor but I don't think the United States wants to dispense with Saudi oil supplies because if this is the case, it could simply push for lifting the sanctions against Iraq and sort out its problems with Saddam....in this case it will get Iraqi oil at half prices and there will be no need for a war," Hubeika told Gulf News.
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