Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 268.42

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2:59 PM EST

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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (2162)	10/8/2002 2:13:37 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	of 25522

I was obviously too optimistic in my post of Aug 7. Since then conditions in the industry have deteriorated significantly. Orders are being pushed out, capacity utilization is falling and end markets are week. FWIW here is my revised attempt at forecasting the industry and AMAT. 2004 is of course a shot in the dark but is a 20% increase in IC sales over 2003. Calendar Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003E 2004E Semi sales 125.6 149.4 204.4 139 141.9 163.1 195.8 Capex/Rev % 21.9% 21.3% 28.8% 27.7% 21.0% 20.0% 20.0% Industry capex 27.5 31.8 58.9 38.5 29.8 32.6 39.2 WFE/Rev. % 54.9% 57.5% 55.9% 55.6% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0% WFE capex 15.1 18.3 32.9 21.4 16.4 17.9 21.5 AMAT Sales 4 5.09 9.56 7.34 5.1 5.6 6.9 AMAT/WFE % 26.5% 27.8% 29.1% 34.3% 31.1% 31.2% 32.0% AMAT EPS 0.44 1.20 0.59 0.18 0.35 0.55 (To see proper formatting hit "Respond")

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