here you go...from r/russell...sheesh...i wish he would have capped things at 68...the quasi-significant other is way out of town -g-
69 Reasons to Stay out of the Market
(Special thanks to the 4 Jim's: Puplava, Grant, Sinclair, and yes -- Woolly CB:)
1 - S&P 500 is down 29 percent for the year.
2 - Dow has lost 23 percent
3 - NASDAQ loss 40 percent.
4 - IPO business is dead
5 - Selling Pressure Index is holding close to its highest level in history
6 - Buying Power Index is just off its lowest level in a year.
7 - The GDP price index recorded only a 1 % annualized increase in Q2 of 2002 -- the lowest inflation rate in 48 years.
8 - Unemployment rate is 5.7 percent versus 4.5 percent a year ago.
9 - U.S. Initial Jobless Claims rise, exceeding 400,000 for sixth week in row.
10 - State jobless benefits rose to 3.681 million -- 4th straight increase -- compares with a 19-year high of 3.83 million in May.
11 - US poor rose last year to 32.9 million, an increase of 1.3 million or 11.7 percent
12 - A trillion dollar government surplus has turned into a trillion dollar deficit within 18 months.
13 - Defaults, bankruptcies, and delinquencies in sharp uptrend as a result of an over leveraged corporate and consumer sector.
14 - Dollar-denominated debt is three times the value of annual GDP.
15 - 76% of US GDP consists of debt service.
16 - Total private corporate and consumer debt as a percentage of GDP is at levels more than double what it was 40 years ago.
17 - Fed reporting that consumer and business debt expanded at the fastest rate in over a decade.
18 - Credit expansion in the U.S. is now running at an annual rate of $2 trillion or 20 percent of GDP.
19 - Household combined debt (Mortgage, Credit Card, Car, Student, etc.) consists of 107% of household income.
20 - Nonfinancial debt grew by 7.8 percent during the second quarter, a jump from the 4.8 percent rate in the first quarter.
21 - Nationwide, the median price of a home is now $162,800 up 7.3 percent from a year ago.
22 - New home construction fell by 2.2% in August, the third consecutive month in a row.
23 - Executives in the housing industry have been big sellers of their stock recently.
24 - Wall Street still recommends them as a strong buys.
25 - Average home prices are now 2.8 times average annual disposable income.
26 - Current FHA delinquencies are now over 11.81 percent.
27 - Delinquencies for all mortgages are at 4.77 percent.
28 - More homeowners are having trouble meeting monthly mortgage payments.
29 - Help Wanted Index and job layoffs announced by companies this quarter are rising again
30 - Credit card debt rose from $173 billion in 1990 to $608 billion in 2001. It is still growing at an annual rate of 8%
31 - Average credit card debt grew from $2,985 in 1990 to $8,367
32 - Home equity lending rose from $461 billion in 1990 to $1 trillion in 2001.
33 - 1995-2000 household debts grew by $2,164 billion -- household income grew by only $1,675 billion.
34 - Household debt burdens rose from 12.47% of disposable income to 14.05%.
35 - Foreclosures have reached the highest level in over 30 years.
36 - Bankruptcies keep hitting record highs, with 1.5 million filings in the last 12 months ending in March, and still climbing.
37- Credit card delinquencies have risen 30% in the last year, with close to 4% of all credit cards past due.
38 - Homeowner equity has fallen from 67% to 55% -- extracted more equity out of their homes to keep up consumption.
39 - Savings rates have plummeted from 8% at the beginning of the Greenspan Chairmanship to almost zero today.
40 - Personal savings are at 0.2% of GDP.
41 - Debt service payments, including mortgages and all consumer debt now are at record levels.
42 - Bond market continues to deflate.
43 - Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages are falling.
44 - Leading economic indicators heading down.
45 - Mortgage backed bonds are turning down.
46 - Consumer spending is slowing.
47 - Business spending is dead.
48 - Durable good purchases are slowing fast.
49 - Imports and energy leading to rising inflation.
50 - Treasury yields looking like Japan.
51 - American economy now has a record exposure to global competition
52 - Trade gap at $34B per month.
53 - US consumer was responsible for 64% of the growth in the world's economy from 1995 -2001.
54 - America is now buying more and more from China, Japan and other countries that are already in deflation.
55 - Every major Asian economy except South Korea is in the throes of deflation.
56 - Nikkei at another 19-year low.
57 - Weak demand in Japanese bonds lost 20% of its value (US$1.6 Trillion) overnight due loss of confidence when Government announced they were to buy and support bank shares.
58 - Bad loans in Japanese financial system have reached $355 billion or 8 % of GDP.
59 - Analysts (including Goldman Sachs) estimate Japanese non-performing loans to reach (50% of GDP) ¥237,000 billion.
60 - The Hang Seng Property Index, (tracks 9 real estate companies), fell to 10551.18, lowest level since 98, lost 1/3 this year.
61 - The number of empty (Hong Kong) apartments rose 10 percent last year to 60,500.
62 - Canadian fund net redemptions hit $1.1-billion in September for year-to-date net sales of $5.3-billion
63 - Emerging market bond sales are headed for their worst slump since 1995
64 - Sovereign defaults nearly double in first 9 months of 02 as 6 governments failed to honour dues on bonds to nearly $133 B.
65 - Brazil's $335 billion debt, may trigger the biggest-ever emerging market default.
66 - NYSE margins dropped from (March 2000) $278 billion to $132.8 billion in August. or 51.8%. Richard Russell expects them to drop another 100 billion to around 30 billion (10%) before bear market is over.
67 - On Friday the bond market fell out of its inverse relationship with the stock market for first time since March of 2000.
68 - At a bear-market bottom, professional money managers hold about 15 percent of their portfolio in cash -- today, they hold 4.5 percent of it in cash.
69 - Bear market in stocks longest in 60 years and credit cleansing could continue through 2007 to 2010 according to Kondratieff winter (32nd month so far) projections. |
