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Gold/Mining/Energy : A to Z Junior Mining Research Site

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To: 4figureau who started this subject	10/9/2002 10:35:28 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) of 5423

UBS Warburg: Gold market sentiment still range bound between $318 and $322. Movements continue to be largely dictated by the value of the Euro, Wall Street and the fragile situation in the Middle East. Trading: Gold had a choppy 2.5 $ range, where both extremes were tested a couple of times. Early fund selling triggered technical stops below $ 319, which level was balanced around $ 318 by short dealers. The movements of the stock-market and the euro dictated as usual the rest of the trading day with the yellow metal finally settling near the bottom of yesterday trading range. As the Dow traded up to 2% after the close, Gold got pushed to $318.10/40 during this twilight zone trading hours, but attracted early buying from the Asia when the Dow closed finally up only 1%. The Far East had a very quiet session and light buying lifted the gold through $319 where Europe took over with in the same mood taking its first direction from the Euro. Forwards: Rates are stable with more borrowers in the short term. Options: Volatility’s are softening further on the back of lower spot. View: If $318 gives way, Gold may fall further to test $313.50 as it would fall out of its solid $318 to $328 range. A big change in the recent drivers to Gold would be required to challenge this support. The more moderate tone in the US President speeches is just one part in this chain of reasons and feels to be overweighed at the moment. 1m 3m 6m 1y 3y 5y 10y USD/XAU Impl Opt Vol (Mids) 16.00 15.75 15.50 14.75 13.23 12.79 12.2 Gold Fwd Rates 1.72 1.58 1.40 1.26 1.21 2.06 2.97 Silver: Trading: Silver-trading saw a lot of fund and commission house selling. Trade houses were the noted scales down buyers and the banks showed a mixed picture after trading through the $4.40 support. Closing on the lows at $4.38, the Far East and Europe had a timid session, trading in line with gold swings. View: After taking out the support at $4.40 a test just under $4.35 is in the cards. Nevertheless, as the Silver trading Comex speculators cut their net long position by 25 million ounces in the week to 1st October the downside should now be limited and a rally up to the $4.65 level is likely in the next week or two. thebulliondesk.com

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