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Technology Stocks : Octel Communications OCTL
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To: David Mckenna who wrote (708)7/22/1997 2:27:00 AM
From: David R   of 733
 
RE: BSN has a market capitalization of ~9 times CGRM

And Revenues just a little better than twice CGRM's (either BSN is overpriced, CGRM is a steal, or both). BSN is in the very high-end SP (primarliy telco's). They are not players in the CPE market at all. I guess I should have qualified my statement about cgrm. I do not know of much BSN presence in the cellular area. Comverse also is only a player in the high-capacity SP. WHile there are tremendous opportunities in the SP, I think that the mesaging companies that will do best are the ones that address both the SP and CPE markets.

I think that BSN is going to have a tough time in the future as CGRM and others increase capacity to 1000+ ports. The CPE market, especially the enterprise CPE (currently owned by OCtel) is very lucrative.

I hope that the other PBX vendors seek partnerships and not buyouts of the remaining VM's. Especially CGRM and ACVC. I think that most likely buyout, would be Siemens/ActiveVoice (just my opinion). NT has a reasonably mediocre VM product (maybe they would want BSN or CMVT for their CO switches, but both are very expensive). I expect Nokia and Erricson to seek partnerships and not buyouts.

One thing about BSN and CMVT. They are very vulnerable to companies like CGRM (and a possible new Octel Sierra replacement). Both will likley sell 1000+ port SP products. If these products add advanced intelligent networking (SS7) capabilities to their products, then they can match BSN and CMVT in capacity, performance, reliability, and features, for a lot less money.
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