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Pastimes : Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX): contrarian investing
BEARX 4.0500.0%Nov 4 4:00 PM EST
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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (731)10/9/2002 5:26:53 PM
From: Tommaso   of 793
 
>>>And I agree that trading BEARX is not ideal... But limiting one's investment in the fund to a time when the general markets are overbought and not oversold (like now) would likely provide a better return over the long term..<<<

Actually I have done that to a very limited extent. For example, back in 1998 I started selling BEARX as the market dropped after the LTCM thing. But then to my incredulous horror the Fed began giving money away and continued to do so right through the suppsoed Y2K crisis. I do wish I had just averaged steadily on into BEARX instead of doing it in random chunks, but I was afraid to commit that much to any one investment, even a mutual fund that reflected my views exactly. I was afraid Tice might lose his nerve and go into T-Bills. So I turned to shorting QQQ on my own and buying puts on the Dow. As well as other puts. But I kept a large part of our IRAs in BEARX because that was the only way to go short.

I guess the present slide seems to me to be so steady and gradual that I don't get an "oversold" feeling about it. If there were a one-day drop of 1,000 on the Dow, I would try to get out of a good bit of BEARX on the close if I could.

In retrospect, of course, I see that BEARX did exactly what I wanted to do and fortunately I did entrust about 25% of our family net worth to Tice.
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