30-minute NDX gives a good look into what's happening right now:
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The NDX has made 3-higher lows since the low at 795. The consolidation has formed a flag off those lows. If it is a bear flag, it projects to around 775 NDX, which would be quite a drop, but would get the COMP to the 1080 level, which could be a pierce of the MA on the monthly chart, allowing an 80-point ramp for Max pain.
The other possibility is that the NDX continues the consolidation pattern until all the trendlines are past, allowing it to move up unfetterred. The SMA's and EMA's on the shorter time frames would also have moved down to the consolidation area, making it easier to surpass them.
The bear flag drop is my preferred, but only because it follows a pattern in how the index handles lower Bollinger Bands at interim lows.
A break of NDX 820 or so breaks the downtrend, and an upside break of NDX 827 breaks the double top. A breach of 798 should bring new lower lows. MACD has turned down on most of the shorter term charts also. |
