<font color=red>GOLDEN DOGHOUSE DROPPINGS</font>
"yeah, some changes in REFI trends
the paydown of debts contributes to deflation by removing money from the system
that money wont be buying VCR's, new clothes, shoes, or vacations
which is worse: REFI-based spending economy, or deflation of money supply thru retired debt ???
the latter is certainly an event closer to true economic resolution of imbalances
still some REFI cashout spending, but probably way way down
thanks, Soros, for sending Russell's full article
saw another CNBC poll that 39% of respondents SPEND MORE THAN THEIR INCOME
with the other 61% spending within their means
reasons were not a part of the questionnaire
some surely are spending despite layoff lost income
but my guess is most are just spending beyond their means in an effort TO MAINTAIN WHAT THEY BELIEVE IS JUSTIFIED TO BE THEIR STANDARD OF LIVING
translation: over their heads
watching MariaB on CNBC giving shit to some Bill Meade of RBC Capital
he said "stocks are cheap"
but Maria has a reader who sent her an email recalling that he bought Brocade upon a springtime RBC recommendation at 15, and now at 5
I love this contrary thinking employed during bear markets
such thinking works during bull markets, not bears
conditional behavior has critical requirements for learning whereby the background environment MUST BE SIMILAR
try ringing a bell in the midst of wolves, and you quickly become their lunch
but ringing that same bell in the barnyard leads to your family dog salivating <G>
so past conditioning is leading to destruction of stock accounts
by their thought pattern, the Intensive Care Unit of hospitals should produce some Olympian standouts !!!
a strong athlete resting on his back is very close to his next great race
but a guy who had triple bypass surgery, lying on his driveway might be closer to death
my list of sub-$1 stocks is growing
PeggyQ of CNBC reported from the NYSE floor that .....
"MILLIONS OF SHARES ARE UP FOR SALE ON LIMIT ORDERS AT THE NYSE,
BUT WE HAVE AN ABSENCE OF BUYERS"
Dow Utilities are now down about 55% from the peak last year !!!
Dow Tranports are down below critical support
Dow Tranny down 9.5% TODAY !!!
these two signal EXTREEEEEEME trouble ahead
Utes typically forecast the economy 6-9 months out
Tranny typically confirms the new stock lows
so I conclude much worse damage ahead, with more debt collapse
MariaB is now asking "ARE THE BANKS GOING BANKRUPT ?" with incredulity and sassy tone
my answer: "A FEW WILL"
credit to Tyler Matheson, who responded
"I GUARANTEE YOU THAT IF SPITZER HAD CHARGED MERRILL LYNCH WITH A FELONY, THEY WOULD BE OUT OF BUSINESS RIGHT NOW, JUST LIKE ANDERSON"
that shut up MariaB
the worst Dow performers in 2002 are:
JPMORGAN, INTEL, IBM, HOMODEPO, ALCOA
a bruising week to follow a few recent bruising weeks
I maintain the bear market will be over when CNBC is off the air"
AND:
"I am deeply disappointed by gold lately
not enough to back out
the paper-addicted investment world is totally totally totally hooked on paper securities
and right now, TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES ARE WORKING FOR THEM
Soros sent me the Russell article to my office email
thanks though, if already on SI PM, then fine, thanks
it took me a few weeks to get the 4figure AU also
I felt dense too
he made some vague reference to his nifty moniker
only then did I figure it out
I have recommended that he change it, several times,
to 4figureAU
the difference between us is that you are not dense
BUT I STILL AM
investors didnt learn about the overvalued stocks until it blew up in their (our) faces
same story must occur with bonds in the Treasury market
right now, even the corporate bond holders are moving into Trez bonds
even FannyMae is hedging with Trez bonds
the USGovt is reluctantly encouraging Trez bonds
the whole world is buying US Trez bonds
NOT UNTIL TREZ BONDS LEAD TO LOSSES WILL GOLD TAKE OFF !!!
AND THEIR INITIAL MOVE WILL BE BACK INTO STOCKS
WHERE THEIR LOSSES WILL MOUNT HIGHER, ON FALSE RALLY
it is as simple as that, since learning is too difficult
even Sinclair is getting pissed off, unimpressed
gold will build pressure in the #315-325 range for a while
like a volcano
the paper machier of short gold futures and Trez bonds will end up all over investors and bankers faces
USdollar fell badly today, but it all occurred within its recent range
as long as US$ remains within 105 to 108, gold is stuck
Sinclair cites 104.5 as the critical support break level
makes perfect sense, even a T/A amateur can see that
US investors only know one way: PUMP IT UP UNTIL IT KILLS
just like obesity
American investors are not very intelligent, never were
why expect them to get smart now?
they are pursuing real estate with bond hands
remember: this is an economically and financially illiterate nation
their discovery of GOLD will not come easily
they will have to get in line BEHIND THE ASIANS
Americans will jump on the Golden Wagon only after #400"
AND:
"USdollar is very close to breaking its bear pennant flag
I refer to the support line in this flag pause pattern clearly evident in July, August, September, and into Ocotober
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh15,....
check the line support connecting the following points:
(main price chart)
103.5 in mid-July
105.4 in early Sept
106.5 and 106.95 in early October
while a move below 105.5 would not mean a break below the critical July lows, it WOULD mean a nearterm breakdown in the pause pennant pattern
pause pennants allow a market to take some time, reflect, examine the fundamentals (all worsening), and then to resume after the oversold condition is resolved
the USdollar oversold condition is long gone
two other fine points to mention:
the Relative Strenk is weakening, now below midrange 50
no evident gain of strenk for the buck since July
that is in the top cycle chart
the Daily Stochastix is showing a Bearish Divergence
notice in mid-August and early-Sept the big black wavey line shows a downtrend pattern
from 85 top to 70 top, now turning down at 50
that identifies a Bearish Divergence, whereby the dollar is rising in a weak upward pennant, but the downtrend DStoch is a sign of weakness
now in early-Oct, we have the potential for that DStoch downtrend to have a third top to occur, as it is turning down now
I have personally seen dozens of such patterns
Bear Divergences and Bull Divergences are very reliable
when the nearterm support breaks, things start to unravel
we will see very soon
October is such a deadly month, as is September
GOLD will go nowhere unless/until USdollar breaks down
or until TrezBonds reverse toward higher rates
or BOTH, probably BOTH, since investors as so stupid" |
