Harry,
Did you see this article that Scott The Newspaper Boy posted earlier about Harry Dent?
forbes.com
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Dent even urged his readers to lighten up on stocks in 2000 and jump back into the market toward the end of 2002. That was good advice for anybody who remembered it seven years later.
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He's sticking to his prediction that the Dow Jones industrial average will hit 30,000 by 2009 (nearly quadruple its current level) and that the technology-rich Nasdaq index will rebound sooner than that.
Dent's confidence, as always, is based upon a simple demographic fact: The baby boomers born between 1946 and 1961 are hitting their peak spending years in a rolling wave ending around 2010. As those boomer households approach the magical age of 49, free of child care expenses and tuition bills, they splurge on everything from second homes to high-tech gadgets. That spending, combined with innovations like the Internet that they dreamed up earlier in their working lives, will drive the U.S. economy to new heights, Dent says.
The technology collapse in 2000 and 2001 is just part of the process as the market sorts out winners from losers, Dent says. The auto industry, he argues, went through an identical phase in the early 1920s before Ford, General Motors and Chrysler emerged as the winners.
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It would be nice if he's right.
However, I wonder if those baby boomers will be using that money to pay off their debt and stash some away for retirement instead...
-Ding |
