isopatch,
RE winter forecast, the minority of warm weeks I forecast sometime in OCT/NOV, I think we've had them and they are over! Next clincher will be to see what the temps do over the period a week on either side of Thanksgiving. While some Indian Summer days are expected around this time frame, how many and how warm will be indicative of forecast accuracy for my winter forecast of a colder than normal winter with normal temps being the warmest possibility. My forecast is near opposite of the National Weather Service winter forecast made in September (no fair if they change it later, ggg):
noaanews.noaa.gov
Frankly, I don't think the NWS/CPC has a handle on it at all.
If our recent La Nina acted a bit like an El Nino what will the current weak El Nino do? I believe they are overly enamored with this "El Nino type" forecast and are not picking up on the fact that ENSO reaction patterns have changed a bit due to other weather variables that are making multi decadal changes.
Remember my forecast is focused on the Mid Atlantic states, in particular, my home state of PA. Also note I am referencing temps here in this update, not precip (yet)other than the one storm call I made in last winter forecast.
We're home for a couple days to change gears for the next leg of our travels so I thought I would drop in and update the forecast. We spent some time in the south and in Camp LeJeune with our very own Marines stationed there and yes we were able to keep in the dry, a step ahead of tropical storms, ggg.
We'll be on the road again very shortly, best of luck to all on the thread,
Roebear |
