The Hazardous Path Ahead
Lead Editorial
The New York Times
October 11, 2002
With war resolutions from the House and Senate now in hand, President Bush has won the Congressional assent he requested for a military showdown with Iraq. That makes it all the more important that Mr. Bush and the nation consider the dangers that lie ahead. As lawmakers were debating this week, new information came to light that made plain just how difficult it will be to manage an escalating crisis with Iraq in ways that assure a constructive outcome.
One area of concern is the period immediately ahead as Washington increases the pressure on Iraq to comply voluntarily with the United Nations' disarmament orders. As long as the United States continues to work with the Security Council to insist that Iraq comply, Saddam Hussein seems unlikely to strike out wildly with his chemical and biological weapons. That could change quickly, however, if the Iraqi leader believes that an American attack is imminent.
The Central Intelligence Agency said as much in declassified materials it sent to Congress this week. At the moment, the agency said, Baghdad appears ``to be drawing a line short of conducting terrorist attacks'' using conventional or unconventional weapons. But the agency reported that if Iraq were to conclude that an American attack could no longer be prevented, Mr. Hussein ``probably would become much less constrained.'' Targets for such attacks could include Israeli cities, Saudi oil fields and concentrations of American troops in the region.
Washington must be mindful of this risk in the weeks ahead and will have to consider steps it can take to protect American forces in the region and to help defend Israel, Saudi Arabia and other nations against a sudden Iraqi attack. The administration has already warned Iraqi military officers that they risk prosecution for war crimes should they carry out any orders to use unconventional weapons.
If the conflict with Iraq reaches a point where the use of American military force is warranted, the battlefield itself could be far more treacherous than the one encountered by American and allied forces in the Persian Gulf war. Mr. Hussein will almost certainly seek to shift the battle into Iraq's cities, where America's airpower superiority and other technological advantages could quickly be erased. Gen. Joseph Hoar, a former American commander in the region, told the Senate last month that in urban warfare, ``All our advantages of command and control, technology, mobility, all of those things are, in part, given up, and you are working with corporals and sergeants and young men fighting street to street. It looks like the last 15 minutes of `Saving Private Ryan.'''
Washington must also refine its thinking about the way to establish a postwar Iraqi government that does away with Saddam Hussein's weapons programs and reflects the desires of Iraq's diverse population. The administration is considering the installation of a temporary American military government, along the lines of what was done in Germany and Japan after World War II. That implies an extended period of American occupation. The military government would conduct war crimes trials of current Iraqi leaders and organize a gradual transition to elected civilian rule. Some Pentagon officials have been promoting a different plan, envisioning the early establishment of a provisional government based on the existing Iraqi exile leadership.
It is far from clear that either of these options will suit the conditions of postwar Iraq. These are likely to differ in crucial ways from those of Germany and Japan half a century ago. And installing exile leaders by American armed might doesn't seem a promising path to democratic stability.
Mr. Bush's most immediate challenge is using the leverage Congress has now provided to win Security Council support for a tough new inspection resolution. The desirable alternative to war is to send U.N. arms investigators back into Iraq with no restrictions on their ability to search out and destroy Baghdad's illegal weapons programs. It needs to be fully explored.
nytimes.com |
