An aside.. the term capitulation and to whom it refers might never net many who we know. I say this because over the last week I had a chance to get out into the real world more often than is my habit. I met a number of people who had been heavily in the market and lost. When I suggested it might be a good time to start buying, to a one, they all said they'd NEVER buy stocks again.
Every one said never again. They would invest in bonds, in their businesses, in land, in anything but stocks. This was such a united response, I had to compare it with some of the SI and 'friends who invest' responses I've had. Indeed some of my friends also say they'll never invest again, but they know I'm prejudiced and watch markets.. and they too like the markets even if they currently aren't enthusiastic, and many can afford not to be.
The point is that we who daily indulge in reading between the lines of business news, up ticks, trin and downside reversals.. we're not listening to main street, we probably never have once we were bitten by the trading bug.
If we're looking for capitulation, we wouldn't recognize it even if the WSJ were to fold and Kudlow and Kramer became a comedy hour (which it has).
Capitulation is out there, the next hurdle is one of time.. that famous wall of worry that markets climb is now a wall of fear, and that will have to change before good ideas are capital ideas that attract money and drive up prices.
Jim |
