P&S and STO Death Blow's Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's

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To: John Carson who wrote (10520)	10/13/2002 1:59:32 AM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (3) of 30712

nope...not possible....you are being fooled by goo...<gg> even if what you said was true...then we would already be nearing the other 1254 peak and just roll over there and back down again to under 1109..... then the nice 25% rally off the 1000 bottom won't come either.... the retrace is better used off peaks and bottoms using a 3-1 count and using current T/A in between the peaks and bottoms...thats why i went to deja vu july one week....that worked nice....then last week went to a geo flat and trend off that....which was up..... this week should be more goo as they wrap up options...we could go higher yet....or dump some and head back up here to finish the week....then i expect a helio cliff dive to 1000.... this might show it better....heres some post i made on the 3-1 count... this was posted sept 6th before we even knew what effect the sept 11th day would have on the market.....nasdaq was over 1300 at the time..... Message 17960824 on the 3-1 count...that long dump from 1759 to 1192 only missed by 6-days.... that count has a 1000 bottom area coming around oct 23....a voodoo date has oct 28th...so margin of error considered...a 1000 bottom would be in that area....theres only 2-trading days difference from the 23rd to 28th... heres another post about it.... Message 17960905 well...that bottom retest to 1202 mentioned hit one day later on the pierce of 1177 that was talked about months before.... that ramp to 1269 retrace was the ramp to 1239 and it was also hit one day after the date predicted.... so those dates missed only by one day...not bad....<gg> anyway...lets not forget what this ramp we just had was....it was the sucker run off the SPX breaking the july lows....period....it was combined with a lowside to max p ping pong effect to screw options holders...period... its amazing watching the weekend financial shows as they spend hours talking about why the rally happened and why the bottom is in.... and i could tell the real reason for the rally and why the bottom is not in...and do it all in a 30 second sound bite... here it is... no rally....it was a sucker run by a major index pierce....and options related activity....the bottom is not in because this is a bubble retrace....and the bubble has not been retraced yet.... thats about it... as far as how did i choose 700 area.....one way was with a t-q major top at 1459 and using the 1932 aftermath...with a double off the bottom.... the other way was using the time frame of the 1929-32 dump and then using the 3-1 count on the backwards nasdaq charts.... the final way was looking at the obvious place it looks like the bubble started.....and knowing in 1932 it even went below where the bubble started in the 20's....many think the bubble started at 1000.... so right now 700 sounds bad...but it still might be too high..... but....we will worry about that in time as we get close....and then adjust if needed...... over here....we adjust...we don't see something breakdown and still stay with it....the retrace has yet to breakdown...so we stay the course... folks who were religious to the 74 spx model....well...your model just got toasted last week....if you stick to that dead model....expect to be toasted with it.... when the retrace does break...we will abandon it..no if's and's or but's about it....<ggg>

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