G Cole re: ["Any comments on the big stock rally Thursday and Friday?"]
Yes;
...2 day's don't = a "rally"
"2 days are like a nickel off the price of a Cadillac"
Does this chart look like there's been a "rally" ?
stockcharts.com
Looks like the antithesis of the "stairway to heaven" chart... more like the downward road to hell - chart.
Dead Cat Bounce... short covering, ESF - plugging the dike etc.
We haven't cleansed the quality of earnings issue yet - ie: corporate fraud, creative & aggressive accounting, expensing options etc.
We have no recovery in Cap Ex in Industrial America, nor in the Land of the Tech-Wreck.
The Debt Collapse is ongoing...no end in site. Today's WCOM, Enron whodathunkit stories may be followed by Lucent, Motorola, JPM et al - tomorrow.
The BOND market is creating another huge misallocation of funds... sucking up the Fed's liquidity pump... signaling something is wrong, very wrong...
Terrorism, War in Iraq which may bring either $10 Oil, or $60 Oil...
Airlines the next industry on the verge of collapse (creating buying opp in regional survivors).
Consumer spending - now rolling over.
No Job recovery....huge corportate layoff's may accelerate shortly due to earnings collapse.
Housing Boom...now softening... "Bust's" may occur in the formerly super-hot - 25-30% appreciation markets.
Auto's having problems... wait untill the "0%" financing debacle ripples thru to eventual plant shutdowns and layoff's...when, not if.
US Deficit grows... Federal, State & Local Tax Revenue is falling - needed expenditures rising.
US Dollar - all the fundamental drivers still portend another wave down imho.
Political gridlock in the USA.
...and MOST importantly.... it's STILL the VALUATIONS.
**** people need to quit looking for value, or a bottom; based on how far this market has fallen from the "top"... that's irrelevant; since we started from atop the most irrational speculative bubble in history.
Pick bottoms and base value - on a bottom up, historic comparison of past Bear Market "bottom's"... and we aren't even close as yet...
Still 20-30% down for the DOW , S&P, NAZ imho...because that is the historic valuation levels required to bring money out of bonds & cash (old/smart/BIG money)into stocks.
PS: I think I've heard these new "talking points" from the Media Bulls approx 20 times over the last week.
quote/unquote:
"Once we bottom, which if we already haven't; we will shortly... Expect a huge 50% Rally in just a few short months off the bottom"
WHAT !?!?! ....a 50% Rally in A FEW SHORT MONTHS ?!?!?
...the Deja Vu - all over again, return of the Big Ca$ino - IPO/iNet Mania mindset ?
C'Mon ?
The 2 Radio Show hosts that drive me nuts...are Dr. Laura & Suzie Orman (what was CNBC thinkin' ?!?!?!).
Suzie Orman was mouthing this mantra' this weekend... I only listened because it's so amusing.
We'll the only way they are going to be correct; is if we get to and then immediately get a bounce from Dow 5000 to 7500....and that isn't going to happen in just a few months.
I think we've got 18-36 slow, painfull, grinding months still ahead. |
