I WISH I COULD TYPE THE RIGHT DATES???<G> THIS IS FROM THE 29TH..I SWEAR...DID WE FALL DOWN?
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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED SEPT 29TH 2002
"IT AIN'T OVER TILL THE FAT LADY SINGS"
Hi there my cyberbuddies, are we having fun yet?. Hope you and yours are healthy and happy during these trying times....
The Wall Street Wizards are calling for a double bottom? hmmmm. Ya gotta laugh huh? How many times have we heard that one before..Good grief. The charts are cascading lower and lower, rallies are short lived with sellers pounding the buyers each and every time...AND we haven't even gotten into earnings season yet!!!!...
Oh and of course earnings should be spectacular right? NOT!!!! There going to be putrid, with forward guidance worse. I do feel we'll washout here though at some point. I am hoping for a panic type crash some time in Oct to BUY it..but it won't be the whole wad<G>..I certainly think there are way too many potent potholes for us to dive into the abyss here just yet..you got that folks? So continue to keep your powder dry, and wait wait wait for the screaming SELL SELL SELL PLEASE GET ME OUT PANIC LOW...WE'LL BUY THAT DIP FOR DAMN SURE...I want to see the McClellan Oscillator at ---minus 300...
And trust me, we could very very easily break the July lows with impunity..it would not surprise me or shock me..In fact i think it's going to happen and soon...Just looking at the chart patterns and the potential of that event happening could create a big panic selloff...Ok did i say enough about it<vbg>? Just put it aside for now because we need to focus next month on what to buy, not what to sell...the selling will be done, and buyers will step up to the plate..The Fundies have sold all their dogs at the bottom, so whats left for them to do? BUY BUY BUY..and get this..there is a very LARGE SHORT INTEREST OUT THERE..VERY LARGE FOLKS..FUEL FOR THE FIRE...Oh and there WILL be a fire..have NO doubts about it...
The seasonality of Nov thru April will help that cause...Yes there are caveats along the way, but we always use stop loss orders to protect our gains, and we are prudent traders, not gamblers...Remember this, we do not go up or down in a straight line everyone..although many would certainly think so considering the last 2 years or so<G>...What we need to accomplish here is to recognize which sectors are going to move up first..and that's where my bullish percents will help us immeasurably...I will set alerts on those BP's on ALL sectors as they reverse up 6% from their current lows...This basing and bottoming process takes time each way we move...No rush here, no urgency..Just focus and keep thinking hard..Your cash is very important, because without it your dead money...
I am asking you all to consider using ETF's and IShares to trade this next go around..why? it's so hard to pick a stock that might or might not be THE one...you can do as you please but i like this approach...I will send out a list of these ETF's but you can catch them at www.ishares.com as well...also Merrill Lynch's Holders..SMH--- BBH etc...these trade just like stocks, you can short them without an uptick and you can do anything with options as well...BTW please do not forget the SPY --DIA--OEX--SPX as indexes to trade too...more on these later...as we move thru the next set of cycle lows..
Ok now on to an other important subject "making money"<G>. Remember my example of how to buy the stock and sell the Leap Calls using stocks with dividends?? well this month should be a great time to initiate this strategy..Well see stocks at their lows for the year probably, and if you chose carefully I think you'll make out like a bandito. So start to put together a list of DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS IN THE DOW OR ELSEWHERE THAT YOU CAN WRITE LEAP CALLS AGAINST..MEANING SELL THEM FOR THE PREMIUM...SO THE CRITERIA IS SIMPLE...THEY MUST PAY A DIVIDEND AND THEY MUST TRADE LEAP OPTIONS...WHAT WOULD BE AN EXTRA IS IF THEY MOVE AT A SNAILS PACE...I just looked at EK it's near the July lows here...From May of this year at 35, it's moved down ALL THE WAY DOWN to 27<VBG>..Got the IDEA?..I guess it will take all of 2003 to get it back up to 35 hahahahahahahaha...but you get this picture right?
Btw one other thing...let's talk about MO? Let's say you bought MO at the high of this last week at 43...it's 37 right now, but you already sold those calls for X dollars...It's not the end of the world..think MO won't be 43 again...and why would you worry anyway..If you wanted to you could actually BUY THOSE CALLS YOU SOLD BACK FOR LESS THAN YOU SOLD THEM FOR, AND SELL THEM AGAIN<g>...YES YOUR NOT OBLIGATED TO "HOLD" THOSE LEAPS TILL EXPIRATION..YOU CAN BUY THAT STRIKE OR ANY STRIKE YOU WISH AND SELL THEM AND RE BUY THEM ETC ETC ETC..ANY COMBINATION YOU WISH..SO OPTIONS GIVE YOU OPTIONS AS TOMMY DORSEY WOULD SAY OF DORSEY WRIGHT ASSOCIATES...Just get yourself in to this game..each and every year. DO IT THIS MONTH, AND HAVE YOUR FAMILY AND FRIENDS DO IT TOO...if they need help have them e-mail me to discuss it directly with me...
OK LET'S CHECK OUT ALL THE INDEXS AND BP'S FOR THE GANG...
DJIA---THE LORD GIVETH AND HE TAKETH AWAY..IN ONE DAY? HEHEHEHEHEHEEE..MAN THAT WAS FAST HUH? AND IT NEVER GOT TO THE DESCENDING 20 EMA DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC)...SELLERS CAME IN WITH A VENGEANCE ON FRIDAY AND RELENTLESSLY SOLD STOCKS..BIG CAP STOCKS TOO BOOT..A BIG TIME NEGATIVE...ON THE 100 POINT CHART 7600 IS THE LAST SUPPORT AREA...7500 BREAKS THAT SUPPORT AND THEN WE TEST THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND AT 7100..WHERE I WOULD EXPECT A BOUNCE FIRST, AND THEN MAYBE, JUST MAYBE A PLUNGE TO 6500 THE 200 EMA ON THE MONTHLY...BEARISH ENOUGH FOR YOU FOLKS??? FIRST LET'S SEE IF 7100 HOLDS IF WE BREAK 7500...OH AND BTW..THE 20 EMA IS NOW AT 8100 I DOUBT WE'LL GET THERE FROM HERE THIS NEXT WEEK OR SO...
NAZ/COMPX---SICKLY LOOKING CHART HERE..A BREAK OF 1150 TAKES IT RIGHT TO MY 1ST TARGET OF 1050. THAT WOULD PLACE THIS INDEX AT 100% OVERSOLD AT THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK. SO REMEMBER THOSE NUMBERS 7100 DOW, 1050 NAZ 100% OVERSOLD ON BOTH..A GOOD SPOT FOR A RALLY...NOT SURE IT'S "THE" RALLY..BUT WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE INDICATORS ALL SAY WHEN AND IF IT HAPPENS...1150/60 THE TRIGGER SHORT...
S0X---HELD WELL ON FRIDAY...BUT IT'S SHOWING A DOJI ON THE DCC. 265 WOULD GET IT STARTED TOWARD THE 20 EMA, OR 230 WOULD BREAK IT DOWN TO MY ULTIMATE 1ST TARGET OF 220...220 IS 100% OVERSOLD...AND REMEMBER THIS THE SEMIS HAVE NOT REPORTED YET? THINK IT WILL BE GOOD? BTW THE BP SEMI IS AT 8%..HISTORICAL LOWS...IT COULD GO TO 0% THO<G>...
NDX---BROKE ANOTHER DOUBLE BOTTOM (DB) AT 850...A BREAK OF 830 AND WE DROP LIKE A ROCK..THIS INDEX DID TOUCH THE DESCENDING 20 EMA, BUT DOJI'D ON FRIDAY..NOT PRETTY..THE BP ON THIS INDEX BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 24% LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO 8% BEFORE IT'S ALL SAID AND DONE..
BTK---AS WE KNOW IT NOW THE BIG BREAK WAS AT 320 AS ADVERTISED HERE...IT TOUCHED 301.00...LAST WEEK IT RALLIED UP TO THE 20 EMA AT 337 AREA AND SOLD OFF...SO IF IT DOES NOT RALLY IMMEDIATELY TO BREAK 340/50 AREA, THEN WE GO DOWN TO TEST 280 QUICKLY...THE BP BIO TECHS HELD FRIDAY AND TICKED UP A BIT..IT'S SITTING AT 22%..BUT STILL COULD GET KILLED AND FALL TO 8-10% AS WELL...
BKX---THIS IS THE BANKING INDEX..AND A BIG PART OF THE DOW SO I THOUGHT I WOULD SHOW IT HERE...ON THE 2 RALLY DAYS OF LAST WEEK THE FINANCIALS HELPED A LOT IT BROKE A DOUBLE TOP AT 700 AND TOUCHED 720 THE 20 EMA...HOWEVER ONE CAVEAT IS THIS..IF THIS INDEX BREAKS 665 I THINK IT WOULD TANK THE DOW TOO...IN FACT MY READ OF THIS CHART PATTERN SAYS IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN...
SPOOOS--SPZ2--ES02Z---5 CONSECUTIVE LOWER TOPS AND MAKING LOWER LOWS CASCADING LOWER AND LOWER...HERE'S AN INDEX THAT BOUNCED UP OFF THAT 810 MARK AND RALLIED TO 857..BUT THE VERY NEXT DAY ON FRIDAY AFTER 2 SOLID DAYS OF GAINS..IT COULD NOT EVEN GET UP TO 857 TO TEST IT..IT FELL SHORT AND ROLLED OVER AND DOWN TO 825...NOW HERE'S THE TURMOIL..WE MUST OBVIOUSLY BREAK 857..PERIOD...ANY BREAK OF 810 WILL CERTAINLY TEST 776 THE JULY 24TH LOWS WITHOUT A DOUBT...IF THIS OCCURS SOON, I BELIEVE WE WILL ALSO BREAK THAT LOW...740 WOULD BE MY "NEW" TARGET...
SPX---ANY BREAK OF 815 IS TROUBLE 780 THE TARGET..YOU KNOW THE REST IT MUST TAKE OUT 860...
OEX---ANY BREAK OF 405 AND THIS INDEX IS HEADING FOR 385...BOTH THIS CHART AND THE SPX ARE ALIKE..435 THE BUY SIGNAL TO GO LONG...NEITHER INDEX EVEN GOT CLOSE TO THE 20 EMA DCC LAST WEEK..RALLY OR NO RALLY...
VIX---THIS INDEX BROKE A TRIPLE TOP AT 44 1 WEEK AGO WHEN WE SOLD OFF HARD..THIS PAST WEEK IT CAME ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE BSL LINE..THE "BULLISH SUPPORT LINE" AND BOUNCED UP 3 BOXES TO 43...IF IT RALLIES UP AND OVER THE RECENT HIGHS AT 46, AT 47, THEN IT BEGINS THE BULLISH CATAPULT FORMATION THAT I THINK WILL TAKE IT ALL THE WAY UP TO 56/57 FOR THE MACRO CYCLE LOWS...ON THE OTHER HAND IF THIS INDEX BREAKS 38 THEN WE'LL RALLY UP HARD AND CONFIRM A LOWER TOP AT 43 DOWN FROM 46..COMPRENDE'<G>
VXN---SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PICTURE HERE...BROKE A DB LAST WEEK AT 57..AFTER A FAILED BREAK OF 63 THE BRL LINE "BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE"..AMAZING HUH..DOUBLE TOP AT THE BRL..ALMOST ALWAYS PULLSBACK...SO 60 REVERSES IT UP 63 THE BREAKOUT TAKES IT TO 71..IF WE PRINT 56 THEN I THINK WE'LL TEST 53 THE DB...
OK LET'S CHECK OUT OUR WATCH LIST OF STOCKS TO DAYRADE AND SCALP..BTW..LAST WEEK WAS SPECTACULAR FOR ME DAYTRADING AND SCALPING..I POSTED EVERY TRADE REAL TIME..IN TEXT AND VOICE..USED STOPS AND EXITS DOING THE SAME THING...MY RECORD WAS AWESOME..YOU SHOULD BE THERE WITH ME...AND THE ONLY REASON I'M PATTING MYSELF ON THE BACK IS THIS:....WHEN YOU TRADE THE PLAN, AND DO NOT GET CONFUSED ABOUT AM I A SWING, POSITION OR DAYTRADER EACH MORNING..YOU'LL BE MUCH MUCH BETTER OFF..
LIKE I'VE BEEN WRITING HERE EACH WEEK..I AM SCALPING AND DAYTRADING, AND IT'S MAKING ME LARGE MONEY...SO SET YOUR MIND EVERYDAY TO DAYTRADE ONLY, GO TO CASH EVERY NIGHT WITHOUT FAIL, AND YOU'LL BE BETTER OFF FOR IT...I AM TOTALLY FLAT RIGHT NOW..
AMGN---BROKE A SPREAD TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 42 WENT DOWN TO THE BSL LINE AT 40 HELD THAT LINE AND BOUNCED UP TO 44 LAST WEEK..BUT FINISHED WEAK ON FRIDAY AT 42...SO IT RALLIED UP AND INTO OVERHEAD R AT THE 20 AND 40 EMA';S AND SOLD OFF...42.90 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG(BTL) IT MUST GET OVER FRIDAYS HOD...41 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER SST...LISTEN UP HERE..ANY BREAK OF 39 AND THATS A "HUGH" TECHNICAL BREAK..TARGET MIGHT BE 31?...
AMZN---ONE SURPRISING STOCK...NICE CHART TOO... THE DOW'S DOWN ALMOST 300 THE NAZ 22 AND AMZN IS DOWN $.14 CENTS<G>..NOW THAT'S GOOD RS(RELATIVE STRENGTH)...LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS 20...17.60 THE BTL...16.25 THE SST...BTW 18 IS THE NEW AND IMPROVED BUY SIGNAL LONG ON P&F..
CCMP---THERE WAS NEWS ON THIS ONE LAST FRIDAY ABOUT THE CFO... AND THE CHART PATTERN IS SUGGESTING LOWER HERE ANYWAY...36.50 THE SST...A BREAK OF 35 IS VERY NEGATIVE YOU STAY SHORT...38.55 THE BTL...
CEPH---UH OH...NEAR THE CLIFF, AND ALL THE WHILE I THOUGHT IT WAS HOLDING OK<VBG>...WELL WHEN THE BTK CRUMBLED SO DID THE BIOS...SO BE CAREFUL..I LIKE TO TRADE THEM, BUT NOT IN LOVE JUST YET..LET'S SAY I'M COURTING THEM ALL<G> THIS STOCK SOLD OFF ON DOUBLE THE VOLUME ON FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE BIOS DID TOO??? HMMMM DISTRIBUTION?...38.50 THE PERFECT SST...40.55 THE NICE BTL..
CHIR---VERY VERY INTERESTING DCC(DAILY CANDLE CHART) HERE..CHECK IT OUT PLEASE..DOJI TOP AT THE AUGUST HIGHS AND NOW HAS THE PERFECT LOOK OF A HEAD & SHOULDERS..IF THIS STOCK BREAKS 33ISH IT'S GOING TO PLUNGE...IT'S MADE 2 LOWER TOPS..IF IT ROLLS OVER HERE IT WILL MAKE THE THIRD..36.10 THE BTL...34.50 A SOLID SST THERE AND LIKE I SAID ANY BREAK OF 33 YOU STAY SHORT...
EBAY---YOU CAN DRAW AN UPTRENDLINE FROM THE JULY LOWS TO LAST WEEK ON THE DCC...IT'S NEVER BROKEN THIS LINE SO FAR...FROM THE AUG TOP TILL NOW THERE'S VERY TOUGH OVERHEAD(O/H) R AT 61/62 AREA...58.50 THE NICE BTL...56.45 A NICE NICE SST THERE...
EXPE---THIS STOCK IS SHOWING REMARKABLE STRENGTH HERE...HOLDING ALL SUPPORT SO FAR...HEY IF WE CRASH AND BURN SO WILL EXPE..NO DOUBT BUT FOR NOW IT'S LOOKING GREAT...52.45 THE BTL...MUST TAKE OUT THE FRIDAY HOD...50.20 THE SST..,48 KEEPS YOU SHORT..
IDPH---GOSH I MADE A TON OF MONEY TRADING THIS ONE LAST WEEK ABOUT 5-6 TIMES...IT WAS SWEET...IT RAN UP EARLY FRIDAY TO A DOUBLE TOP(DT) AT 44 AND WOUND UP WITH A DOJI..NOT GOOD! SELLERS APPEARED AT 44 SO WE KNOW THAT RIGHT?...43.40 THE BTL...WE HAVE TO TAKE OUT AND PRINT 45 TO STAY LONG WITH TRAILING STOPS..YOU MUST USE STOPS..HARD STOPS ONLY..NO MENTAL STOPS EITHER..GOT THAT..AND THAT GOES FOR "ALL" TRADES FOLKS...NOT JUST THIS STOCK...41.25 THE SST..
KLAC---COMPLETED A BEARISH CATAPULT AND BOUNCED..RAN INTO THE 20 EMA AND SOLD OFF AGAIN...VOLUME WAS NORMAL ON FRIDAY...29.40 THE BTL..27.60 THE SST...
MCHP---WHAT A NICE STOCK AND CHART..I'VE BEEN TRADING THIS SEMI FOR A WEEK NOW, IT'S ON MY RADAR...IT BREAKS A TRIPLE TOP "AND" THE BRL LINE ALL IN THE SAME DAY AND AGAINST ALL ODDS AT 21...THIS IS A STRONG STOCK...I AM LOOKING FOR A NORMAL PULLBACK HERE 3BXRVDN---18.50-19 AREA...FOR A SET UP TO GO LONG...I'LL DAYTRADE IT FOR NOW THO...21.50 THE BTL...20.30 THE SST...
MSFT---ONE TOUGH COOKIE...BUT ALL TOUGH COOKIES SUCCUMB TO MARKET MADNESS...46.15 THE BTL...44.50 THE SST...42 LOOKS GOOD HERE...
QLGC--MET HEAVY O/H R AT 30 BUCKS LAST WEEK, AND THEY CRUSHED IT HARD ON NO NEWS...BIG BIG BEARISH ENGULFING BAR ON THE DCC...CHARTS VERY WEAK...AND HAS BEEN FOR MONTHS...27.90 THE BTL...MUST TAKE OUT 31..MUST!!...25.90 THE SST...AND THAT BREAKS THE DB ON P&F TOO..SOLID SHORT THERE...
ROOM---THIS IS ONE HELL OF A CHART FOLKS...TRADING IN AN ASCENDING CHANNEL HERE MAKING HIGHER HIGHS AND HIGHER LOWS..SOLID AS ROCK THRU THIS WHOLE SELLOFF? TRULY AMAZING...52.50 THE BTL...50.60 THE SST...
IBM---MAN THIS WAS ONE HECK OF A SHORT...I TRADED IT SHORT 2-3 TIMES DID OK NOT GREAT BUT OK...61.50 THE BTL...59.40 THE NICE SST...
INTU--STOCK IS TRYING HERE TO HOLD...MADE A SOLID DB AT 44 AND BOUNCED IN THE FACE OF THAT SELLOFF...46.75 THE BTL...47 3BXRVUP AND 49 THE BREAKOUT BUY SIGNAL THERE...44.40 THE SST.. WAIT FOR IT...
QCOM---HOLDING WELL STILL..AGAINST ALL ODDS, IN A LOUSY SECTOR TOO, TELEPHONE...29.65 THE BTL..31 O/H HEAVY R THERE..32 A BIG BIG BREAKOUT...27.50 THE SST...
INVN---FINALLY SHOWED A SELL SIGNAL ON P&F AT 30, THEN RALLIED UP 3 BOXES TO 33..THERE'S A HANGING MAN ON THE DCC FOR NOW..INDECISION...33.60 THE BTL...32 THE SST...ANY BREAK OF 29 IS BAD...
DGX---THIS STOCK CHART IS DEVELOPING NICELY...IT SOLD OF AFTER A FAILED DT AT 62 IN AUGUST...HAS BACKED AND FILLED AND THEN LAST WEEK AGAINST THE GRAIN RALLIED UP AND BROKE OUT AT 63...SO 63.50 THE BTL..THIS STOCK HAS AIR ABOVE IT IF THE MARKET RALLIES<g>...61.40 THE SST...
EASI---STOCK DOUBLE TOPPED AT 61 REVERSED DOWN TO 57/58 AREA...IT MAY BE ROLLING OVER HERE...56.75 THE VERY GOOD SST THERE...59.10 THE BTL...61 O/H HARD R...
BBH---I AM TRADING THIS ONE ALMOST DAILY...VERY VERY NICE..AND YOU CAN TRADE IT EITHER WAY...THIS HOLDER TRUST LOOKS VERY WEAK TO ME HERE...MAKING LOWER TOPS AND LOWER LOWS...76.60 THE SST AND A GOOD ONE...78.75 THE BTL...
BY THE LOOK OF ALL THE INDEX CHARTS WE COULD MOVE LOWER QUICKLY..ALL RALLIES ARE SHORTS FOLKS...BE FOCUSED AND CONTINUE TO DAYTRADE...
WARMEST REGARDS
HAVE A GREAT WEEK AHEAD
JERRY
Jerry Olson
MasterClassTraders.com
jerry@masterclasstraders.com
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