kleht, about the "top"
It could be a very short term top, or it could be longer as far as length of time; it could be days, weeks, or months depending on how much gas this rally has, which nobody knows. That's part of the reason I chose for people to call the top with a numerical value rather than a date.
For the purposes of this contest, if we have more than a 62% retracement (intraday) from the move off Thursday's low then the top will be deemed to be in and a winner will be declared. I had to set some kind of benchmark as to when to end the contest, and although I could have chosen a breach of the Thursday's lows as the benchmark, by the time we get there everyone will have already realized that the top was in much earlier. So I chose that point as the time to declare a winner, particularly since so many of us on the board are short term rather than long term traders.
I chose the 62% fibo number because it seems that most rallies are doomed if they go beyond that retracement. On 7/25 I noted that intraday we had about a 50% retracement of the move that began 10-12 trading hours beforehand, but then we went on for almost another month.
Here are the rules of the contest. Make a pick - you can't win if you don't enter <g>.
Message 18103575 |
