Ray's Review of 50% Gains Portfolio - Oct 11
Continuing to update my previous judgments in the context of Dale’s portfolio.
What are Ray's general market indicators saying?:
Aug 28: Please note that a lot of stocks, as well as the DIA and QQQ are cresting (or have recently crested) the top of a waveform - this unusual occurrence (convergence) is the reason I'm violating my balance rule and am currently 100% short. Possibly we're at the end of a 5 week dead cat bounce off the late July lows and we're beginning 5 weeks of slide. Today was a good day.
Sep 06: Since Aug 28 the DIA and QQQ have slid straight down their slopes, until Friday. The question is: was Friday the beginning of an uptrend or just a temporary speed bump on the slippery slope into the pits of October? The MACD tends to smooth curves and ignore speed bumps. IF we’re up Monday, Tuesday AND Wednesday, THEN the MACD will reverse all those charts and I will reverse all my positions.
Sep 15: The DIA and QQQ seem to be continuing downward slides. The MACD process of smoothing curves seems to have smoothed over the few up days last week and displays them as sideways movement. The DIA is clearly headed down again, while the QQQ is not as clearly heading down (still showing sideways). This pattern leaves me to continue my HOLD SHORT overall recommendation.
Sep 21: As of Monday the DIA and as of Tuesday the QQQ are both in severely negative slides. No end in sight. HOLD SHORT.
Sep 27: On Wednesday night I announced a COVER call for DIA and QQQ. this IS NOT me saying BUY. This is me saying COVER (for now).
Oct 04: On Wednesday mid session I announced a weak BUY signal signaled by DIA and QQQ. I'm concerned about this signal as I said Wednesday night. It just doesn't make sense to me.
Oct 11: OK, after the huge run up on Friday, plus the COVER and the weak BUY last week, this is IMHJ a clear BUY signal for 2 more days. If the MACD turns down on Wednesday followed again with a strong down day on Thursday, that would be a SELL and SHORT signal. What I am expecting is an upside down U formation, especially if Wednesday opens HOD and closes LOD, that would be Clear SHORT for 2 weeks.
What are my charts saying?:
Aug 28: my charts are SCREAMING SELL and SHORT
Sep 06: my charts are saying HOLD onto your SHORTs and watch for a general whipsaw and beartrap on a false rise.
Sep 15: my charts are saying sideways but HOLD SHORT
Sep 21: my charts are SCREAMING HOLD SHORT
Sep 27: my charts are cautiously saying COVER
Oct 04: my charts are cautiously saying BUY on Wednesday, SELL on Friday (sideways, leading towards SHORT)
Oct 11: SHORT never happened. So this is a very short term BUY signal.
My actions during and comments about the past week:
Aug 28: 5 good strong up days and all those negative charts will look much brighter. I give that a 10% chance of happening.
Sep 06: Had 1 up day. Watching carefully, but still 100% SHORT - had to sell my PGO (for a 10% profit) to cover my margin due to Fridays rise in the market.
Sep 15: Had 2 more up days (3 in a row), but then closing flat on Sep 11, and a steep dive on Thursday left us even for the last 10 days.
Sep 21: Thursday was a banner day for my positions (I went up 11% in one day - great for short positions). Almost 100% short, took a single LONG late on Friday to help balance my portfolio.
Sep 27: Tuesday late day I covered 1/2 of my position. On Wednesday, I covered the rest. For now I'm in cash, 1 long position (PGO) and 2 put positions (MCCC and ZIXI).
Oct 04: On Wednesday I bought several positions; on Thursday I sold 2 of them and shorted others. 60% cash, Now 28% SHORT and 12% long
Oct 11: On Thursday, I went long a lot of stocks and covered a few shorts. I’m currently 40% long 55% short and 5% cash.
Dale’s HOLDINGS:
CATEGORY - STOCK (COST BASIS updated periodically to reflect averaging into positions)
FINANCE -
Aug 28: ACGL (18.31) - 27.94 - HOLD 1 or 2 Days, Maybe SELL and SHORT.
Sep 06: ACGL (18.31) - 27.00 - SELL and SHORT. We’re beginning a slide now.
Sep 15: ACGL (18.31) - 27.70 - HOLD SHORT
Sep 21: ACGL (18.31) - 28.30 - The beginnings of a COVER signal
Sep 27: ACGL (18.31) - 27.99 - Showing a weak BUY signal, HOLD LONG.
Oct 04: ACGL (18.31) - 26.60 - Clear SELL and SHORT. Headed to 23.
Oct 11: ACGL (18.31) - 26.85 – Shallowing and Bottoming but no COVER happened. HOLD SHORT
Aug 28: AFL-short (27.1) - 30.02 - HOLD SHORT
Sep 06: closed position - 29.44 - Still on the slope HOLD SHORT
Sep 15: closed position - 30.10 - HOLD SHORT
Sep 21: closed position - 29.62 - HOLD SHORT
Sep 27: closed position - 29.62 - COVER on Wednesday under 29. Weak BUY
Oct 04: closed position - 31.11 - Nice runup over 32 on 3 days. Weak SELL
Oct 11: closed position – 31.37 – rollercoaster – SHORT over 32
Aug 28: BBX Nov 12.5 calls (.4) - Stock at 10.14 - Ouch! I'd SELL.
Sep 06: BBX Nov 12.5 calls (.4) - Stock at 9.63 - It’s not going to get better.
Sep 15: BBX Nov 12.5 calls (.4) - Stock at 9.60 - Still low possibility
Sep 21: BBX Nov 12.5 calls (.4) - Stock at 9.25 - Stock on a low slide, options getting farther away. Losing time premium.
Sep 27: BBX Nov 12.5 calls (.4) - Stock at 8.80 - Stock showing COVER. A 50% stock move in 8 weeks? Unlikely.
Oct 04: BBX Nov 12.5 calls (.4) - Stock at 8.22 - Stock showing a "Sliding SHORT", I hate these because you can't tell where they end. SHORT
Oct 11: BBX Nov 12.5 calls (.4) - Stock at 8.38 – Stock had mid-week dip below 8 then a gap up on Friday. Weak COVER
Aug 28: BFCFB (7.55) - 6.49 - HOLD LONG
Sep 06: BFCFB (7.55) - 5.50 - SELL
Sep 15: BFCFB (7.55) - 7.00 - BUY signal on Tuesday. HOLD LONG
Sep 21: BFCFB (7.55) - 5.50 - No liquidity - my comments are meaningless without liquidity.
Aug 28: CERG (3.78) - 2.31 - HOLD LONG Cautiously, might be on a dead-cat bounce. If a downturn is seen, SELL.
Sep 06: closed position - 2.30 - Time to SELL
Sep 15: closed position - 2.22 - moving sideways with slight rise in chart, but stay out.
Sep 21: closed position - 2.03 - OUT
Sep 27: closed position - 1.97 - OUT
Oct 04: closed position - 1.74 - moving sideways with slight drop in chart, this is a SHORT signal
Oct 11: closed position - 1.27 – Clear HOLD SHORT
Aug 28: ET (3.33) - 4.22 - Cresting waveform. SELL and SHORT.
Sep 06: ET (3.33) - 4.69 - Sideways waveform after a crest. HOLD LONG or SHORT cautiously.
Sep 15: ET (3.33) - 4.84 - Still sideways after a crest. HOLD LONG or SHORT cautiously.
Sep 21: ET (3.33) - 4.42 - Clear SHORT signal
Sep 27: ET (3.33) - 4.45 - COVER signal
Oct 04: ET (3.33) - 4.06 - Clear SHORT signal
Oct 11: ET (3.33) - 4.06 – weak COVER signal
Aug 28: FMT (4.3) - 5.69 - Cresting waveform after a high floor. SELL and SHORT SHORT SHORT.
Sep 06: got stopped out of position - 4.98 - Nasty fall to 4.5 on a Moody’s downgrade. Clear lightning strike. Currently on a dead-cat bounce. Medium term the chart says HOLD SHORT
Sep 15: closed position - 5.08 - Chart is still in a downtrend. HOLD SHORT.
Sep 21: closed position - 5.20 - Chart is sideways but still in a downtrend. HOLD SHORT.
Sep 27: closed position - 4.84 - Chart is sideways but still in a downtrend. HOLD SHORT.
Oct 04: closed position - 4.28 - Major downtrend, headed for 3.0. HOLD SHORT
Oct 11: closed position - 4.61 – Weak COVER signal, would be short term
Sep 06: HTHR (27) - 26.86 - Flat after a major downtrend - chart says sideways for near term price movement. OK place to go long. HOLD LONG.
Sep 15: HTHR (27) - 25.98 - Chart has finished a minor uptrend, and seems headed down. SELL
Sep 21: HTHR (27) - 25.29 - Chart is heading into a minor downtrend that could accelerate with the market. SELL if long, HOLD if short, stay away if not in and wait for clear BUY signal.
Sep 27: HTHR (27) - 25.15 - Chart is sideways. weak HOLD SHORT.
Oct 04: HTHR (27) - 26.07 - Had a pop up this week, and is currently in COVER territory with a weak BUY.
Oct 11: HTHR (27) – 25.95 – SELL if long, HOLD if short
Aug 28: IPCR (28.89) - 29.33 - 3 days past Cresting waveform SELL and SHORT
Sep 06: closed position - 30.00 - Shallowing to flat on a bottoming waveform. Could be ready for a BUY if the general market turns up. Next week is key.
Sep 15: closed position - 30.17 - In a slight downtrend. This might go sideways before heading down. HOLD SHORT.
Sep 21: closed position - 28.58 - Major downtrend coming up. HOLD SHORT.
Sep 27: closed position - 28.58 - Still in downtrend. cautiously HOLD SHORT.
Oct 04: closed position - 28.70 - Now in sideways motion. weak HOLD SHORT
Oct 11: closed position – 30.24 – clear COVER and weak short term BUY
Sep 06: JPM-short (24.5) - 23.91 - Early downtrend after a strong uptrend. Not my favorite place to short from, but a clear SHORT signal nonetheless. Bravo, good position! HOLD SHORT. Could be the beginning of a long downtrend, especially if lightning strikes as you suspect.
Sep 15: JPM-short (24.5) - 22.04 - Steep slide. HOLD SHORT for at least 5 days.
Sep 21: closed position - 20.18 - Steep slide, but shallowing, might be a cover signal coming. HOLD SHORT but watch for cover signal.
Sep 27: closed position - 18.34 - Still sliding, but a weak COVER signal seen on Thursday at 19.
Oct 04: closed position - 16.54 - Still sliding, but a weak HOLD SHORT signal seen Thursday.
Oct 11: closed position – 17.19 – COVER signal on Friday, but earnings expected next week.
Aug 28: MAXF (3.48) - 6.00 - Early Cresting waveform HOLD 1 or 2 Days, Maybe SELL and SHORT.
Sep 06: MAXF (3.48) - 6.04 - Flat after a crest with a slight downtrend. HOLD 1 or 2 Days, Maybe SELL and SHORT.
Sep 15: MAXF (3.48) - 5.88 - Early downtrend after a crest. Clear SHORT signal.
Sep 21: MAXF (3.48) - 6.02 - Shallowed a bit during a 1/2 day run to 6.30 (bad sign for longs), but no uptrend, still in a downtrend. HOLD SHORT.
Sep 27: MAXF (3.48) - 6.02 - Stock price has ceiling around 6. Bad sign for longs. HOLD SHORT.
Oct 04: MAXF (3.48) - 5.94 - Stock price has ceiling around 6. MACD in post crest sideways/downtrend. HOLD SHORT.
Oct 11: MAXF (3.48) - 5.57 – Broke down past MACD zero line. Clear HOLD SHORT, downward trend about to accelerate.
Aug 28: MCGC (17.9) - 16.80 - Still in a rising waveform - HOLD
Sep 06: MCGC (17.9) - 16.22 - Crested and heading down. SELL and SHORT
Sep 15: MCGC (17.9) - 15.87 - Slight, but clear downtrend. HOLD SHORT
Sep 21: closed position - 13.75 - Major downtrend, no cover signal in sight. HOLD SHORT
Sep 27: closed position - 13.30 - Shallowing into a bottoming waveform after major downtrend. Cover not seen, but probably imminent. COVER.
Oct 04: closed position - 11.60 - No cover ever seen, returned to a major downtrend HOLD SHORT
Oct 11: closed position – 13.01 – Clear COVER signal on Friday
Aug 28: QBEIF (3.35) - No chart, no comment, no trade
Sep 06: SCH-short (8.9) - 9.32 - Early downtrend after a strong uptrend. Not my favorite place to short from, but a clear SHORT signal nonetheless a couple of days ago. Today however, the chart has flattened and is not in as clear a downtrend, though it did bump it’s head against the 50 day EMA and back off, a good sign for a short. This is exactly why it’s not my favorite place to short from. HOLD SHORT, but be watchful of this one, could get whipsawed by this.
Sep 15: SCH-short (8.9) - 10.01 - Did you close this? Cresting after a quick pop up. This is a better place to short from. Since you're already short, HOLD SHORT.
Sep 21: closed position - 9.05 - Major downtrend just beginning. Still a good place to short from. SHORT and HOLD SHORT.
Sep 27: closed position - 8.95 - weak COVER signal at 9.
Oct 04: closed position - 7.83 - Clear SHORT signal on Monday at 8.75. Steep downtrend now. HOLD SHORT
Oct 11: closed position – 8.85 – Clear COVER on Friday
Oct 11: UB (38.9) – 38.44 – weak COVER on Thursday with weak BUY on Friday at 38.44
Sep 21: WM (33.5) - 32.48 - Major downtrend in progress. This is HOLD SHORT territory. I would have waited for a BUY signal; we haven't even seen the cover signal yet. WAIT for BUY signal.
Sep 27: WM (33.5) - 31.82 - Now getting weak COVER signal.
Oct 04: WM (33.5) - 28.82 - Clear SHORT signal on Thursday at 29. SHORT
Oct 11: WM (33.5) – 31.34 – COVER signal on Thursday, clear short term BUY signal on Friday
Sep 21: WTM (300) - 301 - Still in a downtrend. Not my favorite place to go long. This is HOLD SHORT territory. I would have waited for a BUY signal; we haven't even seen the cover signal yet. WAIT for BUY signal.
Sep 27: WTM (300) - 298 - Weak COVER signal at 295.
Oct 04: WTM (300) - 289 - Sideways chart, lost the cover signal. HOLD SHORT territory.
Oct 11: WTM (300) - 313 – Weak COVER on Thursday, followed by Strong COVER and BUY on Friday. Explosive move up, but I expect a SHORT signal at 325.
ENERGY -
Aug 28: DUK (24.35) - 27.29 - Early Cresting waveform HOLD 1 or 2 Days, Maybe SELL and SHORT.
Sep 06: DUK (24.35) - 24.99 - Past the crest. SELL and SHORT
Sep 15: DUK (24.35) - 22.98 - Clear downtrend. HOLD SHORT
Sep 21: DUK (24.35) - 20.40 - Latter stages of a major downtrend, maybe another week to slide. HOLD SHORT
Sep 27: DUK (24.35) - 19.10 - Very weak COVER, almost non-existent. For now cautiously HOLD SHORT.
Oct 04: DUK (24.35) - 18.36 - Clear COVER signal on Thursday at 19.
Oct 11: closed position - 19.34 – Short term BUY signal on Friday
Oct 04: EPD (18.74) - 18.90 - Mid steep decline after the crest. HOLD SHORT territory.
Oct 11: EPD (18.74) – 17.70 – Late term HOLD SHORT, watch for COVER
Aug 28: OIH (48.16) - 53.99 - Early Cresting waveform HOLD 1 or 2 Days, Maybe SELL and SHORT.
Sep 06: closed position - 51.15 - Shallowing to flat on a bottoming waveform. Could be ready for a BUY if the general market turns up. Next week is key.
Sep 15: closed position - 51.70 - Sideways on a bottoming waveform. No way this is a buy. HOLD SHORT.
Sep 21: closed position - 48.01 - Major downtrend beginning. HOLD SHORT.
Sep 27: closed position - 50.55 - Clear COVER on Wednesday at 48. COVER.
Oct 04: closed position - 50.30 - Pivotal moment - if down on Monday SHORT, if up on Monday weak BUY.
Oct 11: closed position – 49.93 – Down all week till Friday. COVER
Aug 28: PGO (1.75) - .62 - Mushy place in the chart - HOLD (you are expecting some good lightning here, aren't you?)
Sep 06: PGO (1.75) - .66 - HOLD LONG
Sep 15: PGO (1.75) - .86 - HOLD LONG
Sep 21: PGO (1.75) - .94 - HOLD LONG
Sep 27: PGO (1.75) - .82 - May be heading down again, too early to tell. Cautiously HOLD LONG.
Oct 04: PGO (1.75) - .68 - Tough chart to read. Stock may have bottomed at .57 on Wednesday. HOLD LONG.
Oct 11: PGO (1.75) - .68 - Tough chart to read. HOLD LONG.
Aug 28: PGO Nov 5 calls (2.2) - Stock at .62 - Ouch!!!! even with the lightning, yeouch!
Sep 06: WMB_p (8.15) - No chart, can’t comment
BONDS -
Aug 28: LVLT 2008 11% Bonds (58) - No chart, no comment
Aug 28: NXTL Sep 2007 bonds (76.50) - No chart, no comment
Sep 06: TWTC 2011 bonds (50.75) - No chart, no comment
SOFTWARE -
Sep 15: AKLM (1.97) - 2.29 - Lightning hit (TV talk) after you bought. MACD is still negative. I still say this is headed for 1.5. Good buy, but I'd scalp it - SELL.
Sep 21: closed position - 1.31 - Lightning hit again, this time bad news. Beginning a downtrend to maybe 1.0. Stay away for maybe a week. Figure out if you like this stock because a "dead-cat bounce" is forecast for week after next.
Sep 27: closed position - 1.13 - Shallowing on a bottoming waveform. Weak COVER signal. Dead cat bounce time. If you think this stock won't break 1.00, BUY under 1.10 and wait for bounce next week to 1.35 or more.
Oct 04: closed position - 1.27 - Bounced to 1.40. Slide to 1.00 expected, but MACD sez BUY
Oct 11: closed position - 1.27 – Rising pattern HOLD LONG
Aug 28: JDAS (13.3) - 12.32 - I posted on this one in the SI column for JDAS. Long at 11.70, out at 14.40. I expect this to head to at least 10.5 - SELL.
Sep 06: JDAS (13.3) - 12.55 - Shallowing to flat on a bottoming waveform. Could be ready for a BUY if the general market turns up. Next week is key.
Sep 15: JDAS (13.3) - 12.89 - Shallowing to flat on a bottoming waveform. Sideways, but may head down. SELL
Sep 21: closed position - 6.96 - Lightning strike (revised guidance downward) Slide will continue. Stay away for maybe a week. Figure out if you like this stock because a "dead-cat bounce" is forecast for week after next.
Sep 27: closed position - 6.67 - Shallowing on a bottoming waveform. Weak COVER signal. Dead cat bounce time. If you think this stock won't break 6.00, BUY under 6.70 and wait for bounce next week to 8.35 or more.
Oct 04: closed position - 6.08 - Rising after a bottoming waveform. Strong short term BUY signal. Held 5.91 for short time on Friday, possibly a bullish sign. Dead cat bounce time. RTEK news pushed this lower, if you think there won't be any lightning in the market, BUY under 6.70 and wait for bounce to 8.35 or more.
Oct 11: closed position – 7.10 – Clear uptrend HOLD LONG
End of Part I
You be careful out there
Ray |
