Ray's Review of 50% Gains Portfolio - Oct 11 Part II
TRANSPORTATION - Sep 15: FLYR (9.9) - 10.65 - Price is floored at 10. Buy at 9.9, sell at 10.5. Repeat if necessary. The MACD is kind of a long term BUY. Sep 21: FLYR (9.9) - 9.88 - Price is floored at 10. Buy at 9.9, sell at 10.5. Repeat if necessary. The MACD is kind of a long term BUY. Sep 27: FLYR (9.9) - 9.80 - Price is floored at 10, but breaking through on the down side. Bad sign for longs, but the MACD is kind of a long term BUY. Oct 04: FLYR (9.9) - 11.13 - Strong BUY signal Wednesday at 11 and now in rising waveform. BUY and HOLD LONG Oct 11: FLYR (9.9) – 10.88 – HOLD LONG, but watch for downturn
Aug 28: KZL (23.4) - 24.41 - Not enough data to comment. Given my feelings about the market, I'd SELL. Sep 06: KZL (23.4) - 24.80 - Not enough data to comment. Possibly HOLD with an eye to SELL. Sep 15: KZL (23.4) - 24.30 - Not enough data to comment. Based on limited information: clear SHORT signal. Sep 21: KZL (23.4) - 23.31 - Not enough data to comment. Based on limited information: Major slide beginning. HOLD SHORT Sep 27: KZL (23.4) - 22.95 - Not enough data to comment. Based on limited information: Slide shallowing but still HOLD SHORT. Oct 04: KZL (23.4) - 24.65 - Not enough data to comment. Based on limited information: COVER signal Wednesday at 23.40. BUY signal Thursday at 24.25. Oct 11: KZL (23.4) - 24.00 – weak SELL signal
Aug 28: SKYW (18.3) - 15.41 - Mushy place in the chart to be - Given my feelings about the market, I'd SELL. Sep 06: SKYW (18.3) - 13.88 - Clear SELL signal. Sep 15: SKYW (18.3) - 14.55 - This is headed towards 52 week low of 9.75. SELL. Sep 21: SKYW (18.3) - 12.17 - Sideways MACD with a price slide. Clear SELL signal. Sep 27: SKYW (18.3) - 12.90 - Sideways MACD with a price slide. Short term bounce off of 11.5. COVER Oct 04: SKYW (18.3) - 12.12 - Sideways MACD with a price slide. Upward trend much of the week. BUY Oct 11: SKYW (18.3) - 12.31 - Sideways MACD with a price slide much of the week. Weak BUY
BUSINESS SERVICES - Oct 04: COCO (31.74) - 32.21 - Post crest and in steep decline. This is interesting, I shorted this on Friday at 32.06. (mano y mano, lets go!) HOLD SHORT Oct 11: closed position – 37.75 – You were right, I was wrong – major sector reversal. COVER and BUY
Aug 28: COGI (2) - 1.81 - Mushy place in the chart to be. The real problem here is the lack of liquidity. I'd rather be in PGO, that's why I sold my COGI today and will put the money into PGO tomorrow or Tuesday. Sep 06: COGI (2) - 1.70 - Clear SELL signal. Sep 15: COGI (2) - 1.69 - The lack of liquidity is still a problem. What is the real market price here? I'd SELL. Sep 21: COGI (2) - 1.70 - Clear SELL signal. Sep 27: COGI (2) - 1.63 - The lack of liquidity is still a problem. Sideways anticipated unless general market moves up or down. Oct 04: COGI (2) - 1.40 - Clear SELL signal. Oct 11: COGI (2) - 1.50 – Weak BUY signal on Friday
Oct 04: EDS-short (13.02) - 12.06 - The short signal was Sept 01 at 40. Now it is really late to be shorting as the MACD is in a bottoming waveform with a weak short term COVER signal on Friday at 12.06, look for SHORT or BUY signal. COVER Oct 11: closed position – 13.30 – strong BUY signal on Tuesday around 11.00
Sep 27: IDCO (12.65) - 12.55 - Shallowing to bottoming waveform. COVER signal, but no clear BUY signal. Oct 04: IDCO (12.65) - 12.35 - Bottoming waveform but no uptrend. Clear COVER signal, but no clear BUY signal. Oct 11: IDCO (12.65) - 12.97 – Clear BUY signal on Wednesday at 13
REAL ESTATE - Aug 28: NFI (22) - 28.18 - Early Cresting waveform HOLD 1 or 2 Days, Maybe SELL. Sep 06: NFI (22) - 29.90 - Still an Early Cresting waveform, but now has a upward trend. HOLD LONG but watch for downturn. Sep 15: NFI (22) - 29.50 - After the crest. SELL and SHORT. Sep 21: NFI (22) - 24.77 - Early stages of a major downtrend. HOLD SHORT. Sep 27: NFI (22) - 23.11 - Bounced off of 20.5. COVER Oct 04: NFI (22) - 20.15 - No BUY signal ever appeared. SHORT signal on Tuesday at 22. Oct 11: NFI (22) – 20.50 – Clear COVER signal on Friday at 20.5
Sep 27: NVR-short (309) - 302.95 - Post crest and in a downtrend, gave off clear SHORT signal on last Thursday at 312. HOLD SHORT; OK trade. Oct 04: NVR-short (309) - 287.00 - Heavy downtrend. HOLD SHORT Oct 11: closed position – 295.50 – Doing OK till Friday, weak COVER signal at 295.50
BROADCASTING - Sep 27: CVC-short (10.09) - 9.94 - Post crest and in a downtrend, gave off clear SHORT signal on last Friday at 10. HOLD SHORT; good trade. Oct 04: CVC-short (10.09) - 7.49 - Heavy downtrend. HOLD SHORT Oct 11: CVC-short (10.09) – 7.56 – bottoming waveform but no COVER signal, HOLD SHORT
Aug 28: DIS (17.3) - 15.40 - Mushy place in the chart to be - Given my feelings about the market, I'd SELL Sep 06: DIS (17.3) - 15.36 - On a slide but shallowing to flat on a bottoming waveform. Could be ready for a BUY if the general market turns up. Next week is key. Sep 15: DIS (17.3) - 15.50 - Mushy place in the chart to be - SELL Sep 21: DIS (17.3) - 15.24 - Mushy place in the chart to be, minor downtrend beginning. SELL and SHORT Sep 27: DIS (17.3) - 15.24 - Mushy place in the chart to be, minor downtrend beginning. HOLD SHORT Oct 04: DIS (17.3) - 15.05 - Mushy place in the chart to be, minor downtrend beginning. HOLD SHORT Oct 11: DIS (17.3) – 16.00 – Mushy place in the chart to be weak COVER at 16.00 after being at 14 all week.
Sep 06: L (8.61) - 8.48 - Post crest and in a clear downtrend - Bad place to go long; I would have waited. SELL and SHORT. Sep 15: L (8.61) - 8.30 - Going sideways, but still in a downtrend. HOLD SHORT. Sep 21: L (8.61) - 7.82 - Beginning a major downtrend HOLD SHORT. Sep 27: L (8.61) - 7.47 - major downtrend continuing HOLD SHORT. Oct 04: L (8.61) - 6.75 - major downtrend continuing HOLD SHORT. Oct 11: L (8.61) – 7.34 – COVER on Thursday, BUY signal on Friday at 7.34
Aug 28: L Jan 10 calls (1.10) - Stock at 8.48 - Ouch! If these are worth anything, I'd get out, unless you're expecting big news, though there is a lot of time on these guys.
Aug 28: MCCC-short (5.85) - 5.35 - Mushy place in the chart to be - Not where I like to short a stock - Given my feelings about the market, I'd HOLD. Good thing you're short. Sep 06: MCCC-short (5.85) - 6.04 - Cresting waveform with a slight uptrend - HOLD SHORT, but be careful, this could run up. Sep 15: MCCC-short (5.85) - 6.35 - Running up here. Still in an uptrend. Approaching my favorite place to short from, but not yet. Sep 21: MCCC-short (5.85) - 6.45 - Post crest and beginning a downtrend, SHORT, SHORT, SHORT. Sep 27: MCCC-short (5.85) - 5.73 - Post crest and in a downtrend, HOLD SHORT Oct 04: MCCC-short (5.85) - 4.09 - In a major downtrend HOLD SHORT. Oct 11: MCCC-short (5.85) - 4.11 – COVER on Friday after being at 3.60 all week
Aug 28: MIHL (3.3) - 3.09 - Still in a rising waveform - HOLD LONG Sep 06: MIHL (3.3) - 3.40 - Big pop up on Friday - Still in a rising waveform - HOLD LONG Sep 15: MIHL (3.3) - 3.88 - Still in a rising waveform - HOLD LONG Sep 21: closed position - 4.35 - Still in a rising waveform - HOLD LONG, but watch for crest. Sep 27: closed position - 5.11 - Stock blew up into a spike on Thursday and Friday. Take some profits, and HOLD LONG, but watch for crest. Oct 04: closed position - 5.20 - Clear SELL signal on Thursday at 5.00. Looking for SHORT signal. Oct 11: closed position - 5.50 – Topping waveform, almost cresting, but no SHORT signal yet. When the SHORT signal comes, watch out. SELL
EUROPE FUND Oct 04: EWU (12) - 11.60 - Was in a short term BUY all week. On Friday it gave off a SELL signal, look for short signal. SELL Oct 11: EWU (12) – 12.01 – SHORT signal never cam. Short term BUY signal on Thursday at 11.75. BUY
Sep 21: IRL (9) - 8.97 - Shallowing after a minor downtrend. This is still HOLD SHORT territory. I would have waited for a buy signal. Sep 27: IRL (9) - 8.72 - MACD is shallowing after a minor downtrend. Bounced off 8.45 for a day. Bullish sign. I would COVER. Oct 04: IRL (9) - 8.70 - MACD is flattened. No buy signal seen. COVER Oct 11: IRL (9) – 7.95 - No buy signal seen. COVER
OTHER FUND Sep 27: BRMIX (11.20) - No chart, no comment
Oct 11: IWV May 44 calls (3.2) – stock at 46.11 – Spent all week in HOLD SHORT territory and got a COVER signal on Friday at 46.11
RETAIL - Aug 28: GRTS (20.25) - 20.65 - Mushy place in the chart to be, though I am seeing a floor under the stock for the last week - HOLD 1 or 2 Days, Maybe SELL Sep 06: closed position - 21.19 - Still a mushy place in the chart to be, still has a floor under the stock with a slight uptrend, HOLD 1 or 2 Days, Maybe SELL Sep 15: closed position - 20.58 - Now the price floor is beginning to worry me. No clear signal on this one. Sep 21: closed position - 19.94 - Showing a slight downtrend in the MACD. Combine that with the price floor and you get a clear SELL signal. First sign of downward trend, SHORT. Sep 27: closed position - 18.84 - Beginning a downtrend. Go SHORT signal on Wednesday at 19. HOLD SHORT Oct 04: closed position - 15.46 - In a major downtrend. HOLD SHORT. Oct 11: closed position - 15.03 – Flattening on a bottoming waveform. HOLD SHORT, but watch carefully for COVER
Aug 28: KSWS (19.32) - 18.40 - SELL fast, you're headed to 15. Sep 06: KSWS (19.32) - 17.80 - SELL fast, you're headed to 15 - this went down on Friday! Sep 15: KSWS (19.32) - 18.88 - Bottoming waveform and turning up. Weak buy signal. HOLD if you're LONG. Sep 21: KSWS (19.32) - 21.00 - Weak BUY went to strong BUY 2 days later. Now in middle of strong uptrend. HOLD LONG at least 1 week. Sep 27: Closed position - 22.06 - Strong uptrend. HOLD LONG but look for crest in the waveform. Oct 04: Closed position - 21.27 - Post crest. SELL and watch for SHORT signal Oct 11: Closed position – 22.10 – SHORT signal on Monday at 21. weak COVER signal on Friday at 22.10. COVER
Aug 28: STZ Sep 30 calls (.4) - Stock at 27.15 - SELL fast, any price. Sep 06: STZ Sep 30 calls (.4) - Stock at 27.88 - Seems to have floored at 27.5. Not a good sign. No way you’re going to make 30.4, unless the whole market roars or this gets hit by lightning. Sep 15: STZ Sep 30 calls (.4) - Stock at 29.25 - Had a great week for you last week. Stock in clear uptrend. White knuckle week for this one. With triple witching, this might (magically) close the week at 30. Still a bad bet. Sep 21: closed position - Stock at 28.41 - Stock never hit 30. Now in beginnings of downtrend. Clear SHORT signal. Sep 27: STZ stock at 23.25 - Stock gapped down this week and became wildly volatile. Major downtrend in progress. HOLD SHORT Oct 04: STZ stock at 23.35 - Bottoming waveform. COVER Oct 11: STZ stock at 23.00 - Bottoming waveform. COVER
COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES - Aug 28: NXTL Aug 10 calls (1.70) - Stock at 7.79 - Aren't these expired? or are they Aug 10 of 2003? Stock is Early Cresting waveform same comments as MAXF Sep 06: closed position - Stock at 7.98 - flat position in a downtrend. I went SHORT at 7.70. Sep 15: closed position - Stock at 8.29 - Sideways after a crest. Since I'm short I could be colored, but I'd say SHORT. Sep 21: closed position - Stock at 7.44 - Beginnings of a major downtrend. Still time to short. SHORT and HOLD SHORT. Sep 27: closed position - Stock at 7.30 - Still in downtrend, but shallowing. Regularly bouncing off the 50 day EMA. Unless it can break through that line, it's going up. I'd COVER Oct 04: closed position - Stock at 7.98 - Back in an uptrend, BUY signal Tuesday at 8.0 Oct 11: closed position - Stock at 7.97 – weak uptrend. HOLD LONG
Aug 28: SBC (30.3) - 25.81 - Mushy, but there is a trend. I'd say you're headed for at least 22. I'd SELL. Sep 06: SBC (30.3) - 24.00 - Still in a downtrend, but possibly shallowing to a bottoming waveform. Could be ready for a BUY if the general market turns up. Next week is key. Sep 15: SBC (30.3) - 24.55 - Clearly past a bottoming waveform and headed up to sideways. The recent history suggests this up phase could be a head fake. Be wary - HOLD LONG but sell on weakness. I'll be surprised if this breaks 28 by December. Sep 21: SBC (30.3) - 23.20 - Mushy, but beginning a downtrend. I'd say you're headed for at least 20.5. I'd SELL. Sep 27: SBC (30.3) - 20.14 - Made the 20.5 target. Clear downtrend. HOLD SHORT. Oct 04: SBC (30.3) - 21.62 - COVER signal seen on Thursday at 21.5, watch for BUY signal, but COVER Oct 11: SBC (30.3) – 22.45 – BUY signal on Friday at 22.45
Aug 28: TWTC (1.18) - 1.09 - Under zero long shelf after a deep dive, kind of like you're under the arctic ice. My favorite place to go long, though I wouldn't go long anything right now. Could be some support at $1.00. I'd guess HOLD. Sep 06: TWTC (1.18) - 1.17 - Under zero long shelf after a deep dive, kind of like you're under the arctic ice. Now showing an uptrend. My favorite BUY signal. If you believe in this company, BUY, BUY, BUY. Sep 15: TWTC (1.18) - 1.22 - Under zero long shelf after a deep dive, kind of like you're under the arctic ice. Now showing an uptrend. Still a BUY signal. Sep 21: TWTC (1.18) - 0.98 - Under zero long shelf after a deep dive, kind of like you're under the arctic ice. Now showing a slight downtrend. Still a long term BUY signal. Sep 27: TWTC (1.18) - 0.92 - Under zero long shelf after a deep dive, kind of like you're under the arctic ice. Now showing a downtrend. Still a long term BUY signal. Oct 04: TWTC (1.18) - 0.92 - Still under the shelf, but now a distinct downtrend. If you believe in this stock, HOLD LONG, else SELL Oct 11: TWTC (1.18) - 0.77 - Still under the shelf and in a distinct downtrend. Possibly bottoming. OUT and watch for BUY
RETAIL – Oct 11: AMCR (18.35) – 18.57 – Nice uptrend after a bottoming waveform. BUY signal at 18.00. BUY
DEFENSE - Aug 28: PVAT (3.25) - 3.53 - Early Cresting waveform HOLD 1 or 2 Days, Maybe SELL and SHORT Sep 06: PVAT (3.25) - 3.19 - Past the Crest and in the beginnings of a clear downtrend that could last awhile. Clear SHORT signal. Sep 15: closed position - 3.19 - Price flattened, but the MACD is still showing down. HOLD SHORT Sep 21: closed position - 3.15 - Price flattened, but the MACD is still showing down. HOLD SHORT Sep 27: closed position - 3.65 - Price breaking upwards, MACD showed COVER signal on Wednesday at 3.40. COVER Oct 04: closed position - 3.50 - MACD crested SHORT Oct 11: closed position - 3.34 – Crested downtrend HOLD SHORT
Sep 06: RTN (32.84) - 36.31 - mushy place to go long, but in a clear uptrend. HOLD LONG. Sep 15: RTN (32.84) - 35.38 - Crested or flattened, but still in an uptrend. HOLD LONG, but be wary. Sep 21: RTN (32.84) - 33.70 - Post crest and declining. Sell and SHORT Sep 27: RTN (32.84) - 31.18 - In clear decline. HOLD SHORT Oct 04: closed position - 29.20 - Steep decline now. HOLD SHORT Oct 11: closed position – 28.60 – weak COVER on Friday at 28.60 watch for BUY signal
BIOTECH - Aug 28: IXJ (42.03) - 41.12 - Cresting waveform. SELL and SHORT Sep 06: closed position - 40.34 - Past the crest and in a downtrend - HOLD SHORT Sep 15: closed position - 40.22 - Shallowed and heading sideways - HOLD SHORT but COVER if you see a 3 day uptrend. Sep 21: closed position - 38.87 - Clear downtrend, no uptrend ever occurred. HOLD SHORT. Sep 27: closed position - 39.28 - Short term COVER on Wednesday at 38.5. COVER Oct 04: closed position - 39.55 - Just noticed, no liquidity, hate that. weak SHORT. Oct 11: closed position – 40.07 – weak COVER on FRIDAY at 40.07
COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE - Aug 28: OCPI (1.18) - 1.12 - Same comments as TWTC, though you haven't been under the ice as long. You could be waiting 3 months for this to move. Sep 06: OCPI (1.18) - 1.10 - Still sideways under the ice. HOLD LONG Sep 15: OCPI (1.18) - 1.04 - Still sideways with a slight price downtrend. Tough to pick the bottom on this. HOLD LONG but be wary. Sep 21: OCPI (1.18) - 1.01 - Still sideways with a slight price downtrend. Tough to pick the bottom on this. HOLD LONG but be wary. Sep 27: OCPI (1.18) - 0.85 - Still sideways with a slight price downtrend. Tough to pick the bottom on this. HOLD LONG but be wary. Oct 04: OCPI (1.18) - 0.70 - Still sideways with a slight price downtrend. Tough to pick the bottom on this. HOLD LONG but be wary. Oct 11: OCPI (1.18) - 0.75 – Finally, an uptrend on Friday at .75 BUY
Aug 28: RSTN (.91) - .92 - Same comments as TWTC Sep 06: RSTN (.91) - .83 - Still sideways under the ice. Not seeing an uptrend yet. HOLD LONG Sep 15: RSTN (.91) - .70 - Still sideways with a slight price downtrend. Tough to pick the bottom on this. HOLD LONG but be wary. Sep 21: RSTN (.91) - .66 - Still sideways with a slight price downtrend. Hitting 52 week lows. Tough to pick the bottom on this. HOLD LONG but be wary. Sep 27: RSTN (.91) - .56 - Still sideways with a slight price downtrend. Hitting 52 week lows. Tough to pick the bottom on this. HOLD LONG but be wary. Oct 04: RSTN (.91) - .53 - Still sideways with a slight price downtrend. Hitting 52 week lows. Tough to pick the bottom on this. HOLD LONG but be wary. Oct 11: RSTN (.91) - .53 – possibly a weak BUY signal on Friday at .53
Sep 06: WVCM (36.6) - 36.9 - Post crest and in a strong downtrend, but pushing at the 200 EMA support. SELL if LONG, HOLD if SHORT. Sep 15: WVCM (36.6) - 37.0 - Still in a downtrend. Bounced off the 200 EMA and popped up 8%, but now making another run at the 200 EMA. SELL if LONG, HOLD if SHORT. Sep 21: closed position - 37.11 - Shallowing to slight uptrend. Bounced off the 200 EMA again late last week. I think it's going to break down, but chart is not clear. SELL if LONG, HOLD if SHORT. Sep 27: closed position - 33.60 - Broke down through the 200 EMA last week. Chart is in downtrend. HOLD SHORT. Oct 04: closed position - 33.55 - Cover signal Tuesday at 35. COVER Oct 11: closed position – 34.85 – BUY signal at 34.85
INTERNET - Sep 21: EXPE-short (51.78) - 52.85 - Cresting waveform after a rise out of negative territory, my favorite place to go short. You might be a little early, price ceiling at the 50 EMA, need 2 down days to signal a true short. Watch for SHORT signal (1 or 2 days), then SHORT. Sep 27: closed position - 52.85 - Bounced off the ceiling of the 50 day EMA. SHORT signal on Tuesday at 51. MACD in a downtrend. HOLD SHORT Oct 04: closed position - 43.75 - Major downtrend. HOLD SHORT Oct 11: closed position – 47.50 – weak COVER at 47.50
Aug 28: ZIXI Nov 5 puts (2.15) - Stock at 3.62 - Mushy place in the chart, though a downturn is developing. My favorite short. I've got 100 shares left that I wasn't forced out of at 5. I originally shorted this puppy at 45. Two days ago I bought these same puts for 1.85. HOLD Sep 06: ZIXI Nov 5 puts (2.15) - Stock at 3.65 - Still a mushy place in the chart, and I was wrong (or should I say I was too hopeful), no downturn yet. Still my favorite short. If this stock hits 4.25+, I’ll buy more Nov 5 puts. But I’m seeing a high floor under the stock price and with Zixi this usually means a pending downturn. I say we take a plunge at the end on next week or the beginning of the week after. Sep 15: ZIXI Nov 5 puts (2.15) - Stock at 3.82 - Slight uptrend, feels like it'll breakdown after options expiration on Friday. Sep 21: ZIXI Nov 5 puts (2.15) - Stock at 3.75 - Cresting with slight downtrend. The financing deal this week makes me nervous, it should cause breakdown of stock but might be used to pump it. HOLD SHORT but be wary. Sep 27: ZIXI Nov 5 puts (2.15) - Stock at 3.81 - Post crest minor downtrend. HOLD SHORT. Oct 04: ZIXI Nov 5 puts (2.15) - Stock at 3.77 - Post crest and in a very minor downtrend. HOLD SHORT. Oct 11: ZIXI Nov 5 puts (2.15) - Stock at 3.71 – Continued minor downtrend. HOLD SHORT.
HARDWARE - Sep 27: BRCD-short (7.8) - 7.83 - Stock in very late stages of a major slide. A little late to short, but still OK. Watch for cover. HOLD SHORT Oct 04: closed position - 5.82 - Stock in very late stages of a major slide. No cover seen. HOLD SHORT Oct 11: closed position – 6.58 – weak COVER on Thursday at 6.00. BUY signal on Friday at 6.58
Sep 27: BRCM-short (11.25) - 10.95 - Stock in late stages of a major slide. A little late to short, but still OK. Watch for cover. HOLD SHORT Oct 04: closed position - 10.11 - Stock in late stages of a major slide. No cover seen. HOLD SHORT Oct 11: closed position – 11.47 – weak COVER on Thursday at 11.00. BUY signal on Friday at 11.47
Sep 27: KLAC-short (29.60) - 28.68 - Stock in late stages of a major slide. A little late to short, but still OK. Watch for cover. HOLD SHORT Oct 04: KLAC-short (29.60) - 26.90 - Sideways MACD, but no cover seen. Watch for cover. HOLD SHORT Oct 11: KLAC-short (29.60) – 28.78 – COVER on Thursday at 27 BUY on Friday at 28.78
PRECIOUS METALS - Oct 04: CDE (1.53) - 1.57 - Bottoming after a decline from positive territory (HOLD SHORT territory), no COVER seen. HOLD SHORT Oct 11: CDE (1.53) - 1.36 – no longer bottoming, no cover seen, HOLD SHORT, watch for COVER
FINAL COMMENT - Dale: After a COVER then BUY then SELL now a lot of COVER and BUY signals, I'd say this might be the beginning of a few up days. Thursday is the key day. I'll bet we'll be down then.
You be careful out there Ray |