Toward a human disaster
By Kenneth H. Bacon
Editorial
The Boston Globe
10/14/2002
AS PLANNING for a possible attack against Iraq continues to make front-page news, but preparations for post-attack programs are getting much less attention. This is a mistake; war in Iraq would create a humanitarian disaster, including huge flows of refugees and a serious nutritional and public health crisis in Iraq.
Surrounding countries estimate that as many as 1.5 million people will flee Iraq, and hundreds of thousands could be displaced within the country. The United Nations might need to feed seven to eight million people, about one-third of the country's population, according to some estimates.
Unlike Afghanistan, where relief agencies have been working for years, there is little infrastructure to deal with a humanitarian disaster in Iraq. Stockpiling food, assembling supplies and medicine and building relief teams will take time and money, mainly from the United States.
If Saddam Hussein were to use chemical or biological weapons to blunt an attack, the humanitarian crisis would be far worse. Thousands of people would be killed or incapacitated, but relief workers - the world's first responders to complex emergencies - would find it difficult to provide aid. Humanitarian workers are completely unprepared to work in the toxic conditions they could encounter in Iraq.
Operating separately, officials from the UN, the US military and private relief agencies have begun preliminary contingency planning to address Iraq's post-conflict needs. The challenges are daunting.
First, nobody knows if or when the United States will attack. The current speculation is that any attack would come in the cooler months of January or February, which would increase the need for shelter, blankets, and clothing.
In addition, humanitarian planners don't know anything about the dimensions or targets of a possible attack; would it be focused on Baghdad or include other major cities, such as Basra and Mosul?
Second, nobody knows if the war would stay limited to Iraq or spread to other countries, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Both UN and US analysts have concluded that Iraq has retained a missile program that could allow it to attack targets in other countries.
Third, all planners are worried about a basic lack of assistance infrastructure in and around Iraq. For example, only a few international non-government agencies work in Baghdad, compared with the hundreds working in Afghanistan.
As a result, there is no network for distributing aid quickly. The UN has less than 1,000 expatriate workers in Iraq, supported by a few thousand Iraqis. Most of the international workers administer the UN's oil for food program and would likely leave the country before hostilities start.
Combat would generate a large and immediate need for food, shelter and medicine, both for refugees and those who survived the war within Iraq. But very little relief material is stockpiled in the area. Iran estimates that up to one million refugees could move toward its border, but there are currently enough supplies in place for 40,000.
This problem can be solved with a combination of planning, time, and money. Thousands of tons of food, blankets and medical equipment must be stockpiled in the area as quickly as possible. Most of the refugees are expected to flee toward Iran and Turkey, although both countries currently contend that they won't accept new refugees. Nevertheless, supplies will have to be warehoused in Turkey and Iran so that assistance can be close to refugees in border areas.
These logistical problems are small compared to what relief agencies would face if Saddam Hussein, desperate to repel attack, used chemical or biological weapons. The immediate fatalities and casualties could be extremely high, and the lingering toxic impact of chemical, and particularly biological, agents could complicate rescue and relief efforts. Relief agencies simply lack the experience, equipment and training to work in poisoned environments.
In 1988 Iraqi forces killed thousands of Kurds with chemical weapons in the northern Iraqi city of Halabja. Dr. Christine Gosden, a British scientist who has studied the attack, concluded that ''treating immediately the victims of chemical attack is absolutely critical, not only for saving lives, but for preventing long-term radiation-like medical and genetic problems,'' such as cancer and birth defects.
But Saddam's forces used a cocktail of chemical toxins - mustard gas and the nerve agents Sarin, Tabun, and VX - that made defense and treatment particularly difficult.
No matter how complex the humanitarian challenges, they must be addressed quickly and forthrightly. The humanitarian costs are a necessary part of the calculus of war, and the United States must take the lead in confronting them. Preparation to save the people of Iraq is at least as important as planning to remove the president of Iraq.
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Kenneth H. Bacon, a former assistant secretary of defense, is the president of Refugees International.
© Copyright 2002 Globe Newspaper Company.
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