Arne Alsin & the Long-Term:
"but what about the long term?"
I personally know what type of returns Arne has earned for a few of his clients. They are exceptional. Each client is separate so I don't have a published article to provide for you. If one doesn't want to learn from a true value investor, then one can choose to be a momo investor or buy the firsthandfunds! :)
Here is what Arne has published at his website for his returns. Arne will provide more info to prospective clients. Once again I'm not hyping Arne. A spade is a spade. Arne is one of the top value money managers, financial (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow analysis) analysts out there. I learn from Arne everytime he writes. Same thing applies to Ace G. @ AIG, Warren B @ brk.a, Martin Whitman @ Third Avenue, Longleaf staff, etc. Arne provides some insight to non-tech small-cap & mid-cap stocks with solid dividend yields.
Arne Alsin Results:
alsincapital.com
Average Return: Top-10 Turnarounds 2002 -19.96%
Average Return: S&P 500 -26.19%
Average Return: Top-10 Turnarounds 2001 32.01%
Average Return: S&P 500 -16.39%
Average Return: Other Positions -1.94%
Average Return: S&P 500 -27.28%
Arne Alsin Philosophy:
alsincapital.com
I buy solid companies where there is a wide disparity between the stock price and the value of the underlying company.
And I leave it at that. Predicting macro economic trends, technical analysis, active trading, forecasting the direction of the market are beyond my ken - and, in my opinion, a waste of time.
I have often said that there are only two kinds of companies - companies that have problems, and companies that are going to have problems. Since I am singularly interested in bargains, most of the companies I invest in are struggling with problems. In my view, there are several advantages to this value strategy:
Terrific stock prices: Too many investors project problems into the future in a linear fashion, assuming they will never go away. Stocks of such companies are generally heavily discounted.
Safety: To the extent the problems of a company are disclosed, the risk of a negative surprise declines. And to the extent company problems enable an investor to acquire a stock at a large discount, capital risk also declines.
Measurable Problems: Problems that are revealed can be analyzed and quantified. You can't measure what is hidden. Companies that are struggling tend to put everything on the table - it is an ideal time for management to clear the deck.
While I am the portfolio manager on all accounts, I am lucky to be able to work with Glenn Surowiec, our senior analyst. It's rare to find the combination of a natural instinct for value with an abundance of analytic talent - prior to joining ACM, Glenn was a top quantitative analyst, specializing in derivatives, for a Fortune 500 company. |
