Jorj- Your July comparison still seems relevant to me. So far, it is still playing out with many similarities, except that this time around is condensed a bit. The pause before the final July down leg was skipped, and then the pause (bull-flag) between the long white candle on July 24 and the subsequent gap-up was again skipped. We seem to be going through the same motions, but faster.. also the brief capitulation that some claim they saw in July was absent altogether this time. If I am not stretching this too far, then we could now be said to be at the top between July and August lows. A continuation of the speeded up version of July would imply a pretty quick drop from here.
After that, I would imagine the similarity WOULD end, simply because with no capitulation type panic whatsoever at the most recent lows, their re-test is less likely to be successful.
Also, if we go any further up from here (save for maybe a one day evening star), then you are right and this is a whole different pattern.
I know I am trying to read too much into this, but there is something about the speeded up repetition that intuitively appeals to me.. I cannot quite explain what it is, but it makes sense that it might play out that way. One thing I can say: no panic at the bottom does make it more likely that this rally will have even less staying power than the end of July rally -and that is only possible if we pretty much turn back here..
OK, enough of that.
Good night. |
