Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (20282)	10/15/2002 12:33:43 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 36161

["Getting close to your 8350 Dow target. Do you still expect a fast drop to Dow 7000 whan this rally ends."] ...I think technically 8750 is actually the key resistance point...but, my guess is that there are still lots of Institutional Sellers into Rallies and we will begin to see these DCB's sold quicker than we have in the past...especially given more, not less... clouds over-hanging this geopolitical & economic market environment...so I think this one won't even make it to 8750's resistance ceiling....8350 is my "WAG". And yes; once this DCB ends... I think we broach the 7,000 level by the end of November. You have to ask yourself - "what FUNDAMENTALLY changed" here ? - the obvious answer; is nothing... For those 2-3 day swing-trade "scalpers" who are still out there...more power to them...I'm just not playing that game presently...and let's be realist's... it's a much lower reward/higher risk game given the continual downward trend of this market over the last few years. Look at what has happened to our OilPatch friends elsewhere who have continually tried to play/trade every downdraft move as "THE" reversal since May 2000 ? - it's been completely unproductive. I've begun to develop the trading maturation and patience (finally) to discipline myself to only go fishing... when - "they're spawning on the pads"...ie: High Reward/Low-moderate risk environments. I just say "no" to anything else in this environment on any serious portfolio weighted level. Will I throw say a 5% portfolio level into a short-term swing trade ? - sure; but we've got day-swing traders still going heavy into and out of margin on these plays... that's insane imho. I'm trying to only target - the golden middle 2/3rds of the High Reward/Low Risk cyclical, or contrarian moves. At DOW 7,000ish - we're in the bottom 1/3rd of the move... so I'm not interested in shorting much there... but, on the DCB's to the upward resistance levels of the channel - yes; I'll play a bit... but, the BIG & EASY Money will next be made by having massive levels of Cash to redeploy after exercising massive amounts of Patience for the MOABO of our lifetime... and it's coming imho...and I think we'll see Puplava's "Rogue Wave" scenario be the final catalyst to that final bottoming event.

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